TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Kosar vs Adam Svoboda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11471116141210––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:36 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Kosar above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 85 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 63.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Kosar 3–2 Adam Svoboda Adam Svoboda has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosar 1439 vs Svoboda 1378
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosar 20% vs Svoboda 40%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosar 40% vs Svoboda 20%
Kosar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosar +1 · Svoboda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosar 2.50 / Svoboda 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Svoboda)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13200421
Kosar2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 65 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back30% 20 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Svoboda1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 65 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 48 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKosar3wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKosar leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosar100%3 of 3
AwaySvobodan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosar3Svoboda2n = 5Kosar took 3 of 5
S2Kosar0Svoboda5n = 5Svoboda took 5 of 5
S3Kosar2Svoboda3n = 5Svoboda took 3 of 5
S4Kosar3Svoboda1n = 4Kosar took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKosarSvobodaK − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match34.838.8−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosarSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 418 vs 182 / 35452.4%51.4%219 / 418 vs 182 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaKosar 2.50/Svoboda 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 27 · 10:00V. Kosar4611716123A. Svoboda3941114101
LSep 9 · 03:30V. Kosar208570A. Svoboda331111113
WSep 8 · 23:00V. Kosar44115611113A. Svoboda4371111682
LApr 25 · 03:30V. Kosar24561121A. Svoboda4211119113
WApr 24 · 23:00V. Kosar40114311113A. Svoboda3731111662
V. Kosar10
WSep 26 · 21:09M. Stefek1.837150V. Kosar1.831111113LSep 26 · 20:30V. Kosar2.38171141182M. Fisera1.531581113113LSep 26 · 19:00V. Kosar1.73461181M. Stefek2.0011118113LSep 26 · 18:00J. Didi2.0011611113V. Kosar1.73711881LSep 23 · 20:58V. Kosar1.678690J. Moravek2.101111113WSep 23 · 20:30V. Kosar2.101111113J. Moravek1.672780LSep 23 · 19:00V. Kosar1.919750J. Steffan1.801111113LSep 23 · 18:00R. Bartunek1.61117115133V. Kosar2.20611911112WSep 18 · 21:28V. Kosar1.83119611113L. Sulava1.8341111842WSep 18 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00119119133T. Regner1.73411711112
A. Svoboda10
LSep 27 · 08:30F. Briza1.83811117113A. Svoboda1.8311481172LSep 27 · 07:30A. Svoboda1.8381111542M. Placek1.83118711113WSep 27 · 06:30D. Horak2.101141071A. Svoboda1.6781112113LSep 25 · 13:00L. Malek1.671111113A. Svoboda2.109590LSep 25 · 12:30J. Steffan1.8011118133A. Svoboda1.916711111LSep 25 · 11:30A. Svoboda2.505116101K. Darin1.5011811123LSep 25 · 10:30L. Malek1.7311716113A. Svoboda2.004111451LSep 24 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.674590O. Kucirek2.101111113LSep 24 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.639940P. Picek1.441111113LSep 24 · 00:00J. Jnr1.3661111113A. Svoboda3.00114771
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