TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Kosar vs Martin Stefek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411611118811––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:36 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVaclav Kosar to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Kosar above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vaclav Kosar at 54.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Kosar 7–7 Martin Stefek Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:36What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kosar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosar 1415 vs Stefek 1431
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosar 20% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosar 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosar -2 · Stefek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kosar) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosar 1.73 / Stefek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kosar)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13194787
Kosar1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 52 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 45 of 54
Stefek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 179 of 417
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosar5wins
AwayStefek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosar83.3%5 of 6
AwayStefek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosar6Stefek4n = 10Kosar took 6 of 10
S2Kosar2Stefek8n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S3Kosar8Stefek2n = 10Kosar took 8 of 10
S4Kosar4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S5Kosar2Stefek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosarStefekK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.141.3+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosarStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 414 vs 606 / 125952.4%48.1%217 / 414 vs 606 / 1259Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosarKosar 1.73/Stefek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kosar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 19:30V. Kosar45111112113M. Stefek37771491
WSep 15 · 01:00V. Kosar5111911203M. Stefek438116181
LJul 29 · 19:30V. Kosar4011711292M. Stefek42511411113
LJul 8 · 01:00V. Kosar4467111192M. Stefek46111158113
WJul 3 · 21:00V. Kosar4011711113M. Stefek31911741
LJul 3 · 19:30V. Kosar4110111191M. Stefek4412813113
LJun 30 · 03:30V. Kosar34581291M. Stefek43111110113
WJun 30 · 02:00V. Kosar491151111113M. Stefek4671161392
WMay 18 · 20:00V. Kosar41112115123M. Stefek41311611102
LJan 16 · 00:30V. Kosar369611101M. Stefek4011116123
V. Kosar10
LSep 26 · 18:00J. Didi2.0011611113V. Kosar1.73711881LSep 23 · 20:58V. Kosar1.678690J. Moravek2.101111113WSep 23 · 20:30V. Kosar2.101111113J. Moravek1.672780LSep 23 · 19:00V. Kosar1.919750J. Steffan1.801111113LSep 23 · 18:00R. Bartunek1.61117115133V. Kosar2.20611911112WSep 18 · 21:28V. Kosar1.83119611113L. Sulava1.8341111842WSep 18 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00119119133T. Regner1.73411711112WSep 18 · 19:30L. Sulava1.73661141V. Kosar2.0011119113WSep 18 · 18:00V. Kosar1.44111268113J. Strnad2.63310111182WSep 17 · 21:30R. Hasmanda2.45911841V. Kosar1.4811811113
M. Stefek10
LSep 26 · 18:30M. Stefek2.633390M. Fisera1.441111113WSep 25 · 03:30M. Stefek1.771411113M. Novak1.9312960WSep 25 · 02:30M. Stefek1.40122199113J. Strnad2.751019111192LSep 25 · 01:30M. Novak2.00148711113M. Stefek1.73121111982WSep 25 · 00:00M. Stefek1.8011311173L. Sulava1.915118151WSep 24 · 23:00A. Schneeberger1.50111011692M. Stefek2.50712611113LSep 23 · 03:30R. Bartunek1.681113113M. Stefek2.0581150WSep 23 · 02:00M. Stefek1.4461111113J. Strnad2.63119861LSep 23 · 01:00M. Stefek2.501111891R. Bartunek1.5013511113WSep 23 · 00:00V. Dolezal1.44891191M. Stefek2.6311113113
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