TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Horak vs Milan Kolar 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4119111210112115
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Horak above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Milan Kolar at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H David Horak 32–31 Milan Kolar Milan Kolar has won 31 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5254.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-31 in 63
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1403 vs Kolar 1445
Kolar
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 60% vs Kolar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 40% vs Kolar 70%
Kolar
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -2 · Kolar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kolar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.909 / Kolar 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolar)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237718
Horak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Kolar1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 109 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it91% 60 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it79% 85 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorak6wins
AwayKolar4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak60%3 of 5
AwayKolar40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak5Kolar5n = 10split evenly
S2Horak4Kolar6n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S3Horak5Kolar5n = 10split evenly
S4Horak4Kolar2n = 6Horak took 4 of 6
S5Horak4Kolar2n = 6Horak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorakKolarH − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.640.7+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 532 vs 409 / 82253.8%49.8%286 / 532 vs 409 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolarHorak 1.91/Kolar 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:00D. Horak47491211113M. Kolar39111110252
LOct 3 · 17:30D. Horak45117512102M. Kolar517111110123
WOct 3 · 15:00D. Horak341211113M. Kolar2610790
WOct 3 · 10:00D. Horak351111133M. Kolar1944110
LSep 2 · 17:06D. Horak24101040M. Kolar351212113
WSep 2 · 15:30D. Horak6515181011113M. Kolar58171612762
LJul 18 · 03:30D. Horak4311411982M. Kolar48911611113
WJul 17 · 23:30D. Horak551161116113M. Kolar51131171462
LJul 11 · 19:30D. Horak165560M. Kolar331111113
WJul 11 · 15:00D. Horak521111613113M. Kolar4769111562
D. Horak10
LOct 4 · 07:30F. Briza2.251111113D. Horak1.572530LOct 3 · 17:30D. Horak1.85117512102M. Kolar1.857111110123LOct 3 · 16:30D. Horak1.61761191F. Briza2.2011117113WOct 3 · 15:00D. Horak2.251211113M. Kolar1.5710790WOct 3 · 14:00K. Darin1.736990D. Horak2.001111113WOct 3 · 13:12F. Briza2.0761181252D. Horak1.671161110113LOct 3 · 12:00D. Horak1.91119841A. Svoboda1.8041111113LOct 3 · 11:30F. Briza2.259121111113D. Horak1.57111013782WOct 3 · 10:00D. Horak2.201111133M. Kolar1.6144110LSep 27 · 13:31V. Kosar1.90611911133D. Horak1.80118119112
M. Kolar10
LOct 4 · 07:00M. Kolar1.834650A. Svoboda1.831111113WOct 3 · 17:30D. Horak1.85117512102M. Kolar1.857111110123WOct 3 · 16:00K. Darin2.7561230M. Kolar1.401114113LOct 3 · 15:00D. Horak2.251211113M. Kolar1.5710790WOct 3 · 14:30M. Kolar1.531116113F. Briza2.3861470LOct 3 · 13:30A. Svoboda2.1011124113M. Kolar1.653101181WOct 3 · 12:30M. Kolar1.53131188123F. Briza2.381131111102WOct 3 · 11:00M. Kolar1.61411118113A. Svoboda2.2011831162LOct 3 · 10:00D. Horak2.201111133M. Kolar1.6144110WOct 2 · 13:30M. Kolar1.8091111113L. Malek1.91118981
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.