TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Vladimir Postelt 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012115611711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Vladimir Postelt below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Michal Vedmoch at 66.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 21–16 Vladimir Postelt Vladimir Postelt has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5866.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Vedmoch
Wrong
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1518 vs Postelt 1445
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 80% vs Postelt 40%
Vedmoch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 60% vs Postelt 40%
Vedmoch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +3 · Postelt +2
Vedmoch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Vedmoch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.444 / Postelt 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Vedmoch)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228147
Vedmoch1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 193 of 299
Up 2–0, closes it97% 95 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it80% 145 of 181
Postelt2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 41 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch9wins
AwayPostelt1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch88.9%8 of 9
AwayPosteltn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch9Postelt1n = 10Vedmoch took 9 of 10
S2Vedmoch8Postelt2n = 10Vedmoch took 8 of 10
S3Vedmoch7Postelt3n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S4Vedmoch2Postelt2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochPosteltV − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.130.1+8.0per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochPosteltBasisWin rate · lifetime714 / 1349 vs 427 / 81652.9%52.3%714 / 1349 vs 427 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.44/Postelt 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 22:30M. Vedmoch331111113V. Postelt239680
WSep 8 · 22:00M. Vedmoch46141110113V. Postelt411281291
WAug 30 · 01:00M. Vedmoch331111113V. Postelt208570
LAug 25 · 23:30M. Vedmoch33116881V. Postelt4291111113
WAug 14 · 23:30M. Vedmoch361211133V. Postelt27106110
WJul 20 · 08:00M. Vedmoch45118132113V. Postelt44411111172
WJul 18 · 20:00M. Vedmoch331111113V. Postelt197660
WJun 19 · 16:30M. Vedmoch371511113V. Postelt2413290
WMay 30 · 15:00M. Vedmoch341111123V. Postelt2174100
WMay 29 · 11:30M. Vedmoch517111111113V. Postelt4011313762
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 2 · 15:30T. Dousa2.251011881M. Vedmoch1.5712411113WOct 2 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.67631111143J. Prokupek2.10111196122WOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113LOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140WOct 1 · 11:00J. Prokupek2.00910140M. Vedmoch1.731112163WOct 1 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.57121110113J. Plachy2.251091271LOct 1 · 08:58M. Vedmoch1.736617111J. Plachy2.00111115133LOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382LOct 1 · 07:00J. Stolfa1.8381513123M. Vedmoch1.83111311101WOct 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch1.6711811113J. Plachy2.10711991
V. Postelt10
WOct 2 · 15:00J. Prokupek1.91117781V. Postelt1.8081111113WOct 2 · 14:30V. Postelt1.571111113T. Dousa2.258890LOct 2 · 13:45V. Postelt1.5741491172M. Fisera2.251112116113LOct 2 · 12:00M. Kolar1.9191111113V. Postelt1.80117881LOct 2 · 11:00L. Malek3.751181012113V. Postelt1.25911121092WOct 2 · 10:30V. Postelt1.25911212113M. Fisera3.75118111072LSep 30 · 03:00V. Postelt1.508350J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 30 · 02:00V. Postelt1.141411991K. Darin5.0016511113WSep 30 · 01:00V. Postelt1.831112113J. Prokupek1.8381060LSep 30 · 00:00R. Pavelka2.101011118113V. Postelt1.6712291112
Upcoming Matches
M. Vedmoch
Oct 2 · 22:00M. Vedmoch3.00K. Brozhik1.36—Oct 2 · 23:00M. Vedmoch3.40M. Sobisek1.30—Oct 3 · 00:30M. Vedmoch3.75D. Tuma1.25—Oct 3 · 02:00M. Vedmoch2.50R. Pavelka1.50—Oct 3 · 10:00M. Vedmoch1.91J. Stolfa1.80—Oct 3 · 11:00M. Vedmoch2.10T. Vinter1.67—Oct 3 · 12:30M. Vedmoch1.67J. Prokupek2.10—Oct 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.57J. Prokupek2.25—Oct 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.57P. Fojt2.25—Oct 4 · 01:00M. Vedmoch1.73J. Plachy2.00—
V. Postelt
Nothing scheduled
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