TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Michal Vedmoch 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191614––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 16-14
Point 69 set 3, 16-14 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 62.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 25–15 Michal Vedmoch Michal Vedmoch has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5962.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-15 in 40
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1605 vs Vedmoch 1499
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 80% vs Vedmoch 40%
Pavelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Vedmoch 30%
Pavelka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Vedmoch +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.533 / Vedmoch 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Pavelka)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222511
Pavelka1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 97 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Vedmoch2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 110 of 250
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka8wins
AwayVedmoch2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%8 of 8
AwayVedmochn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka8Vedmoch2n = 10Pavelka took 8 of 10
S2Pavelka5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavelka6Vedmoch4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S4Pavelka3Vedmoch3n = 6split evenly
S5Pavelka3Vedmoch0n = 3Pavelka took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaVedmochP − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.030.3+7.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 878 vs 711 / 134550.9%52.9%447 / 878 vs 711 / 1345Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.53/Vedmoch 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 18:00R. Pavelka491111133113M. Vedmoch4151151192
WSep 24 · 08:30R. Pavelka331111113M. Vedmoch237880
WSep 23 · 06:00R. Pavelka43111011113M. Vedmoch21312421
LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka351011951M. Vedmoch3712311113
LSep 7 · 14:00R. Pavelka189450M. Vedmoch331111113
WAug 30 · 20:00R. Pavelka44111111113M. Vedmoch34713771
WAug 30 · 03:30R. Pavelka331111113M. Vedmoch167720
WAug 30 · 02:00R. Pavelka47118116113M. Vedmoch4491151182
WAug 25 · 20:00R. Pavelka331111113M. Vedmoch166460
WAug 24 · 17:30R. Pavelka45118411113M. Vedmoch3851111742
R. Pavelka10
WOct 1 · 13:11R. Pavelka1.831111113J. Prokupek1.838350LOct 1 · 11:30J. Plachy2.381181011113R. Pavelka1.5361112992LOct 1 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.6197111172J. Prokupek2.20111146113WSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171WSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113WSep 30 · 00:00R. Pavelka2.101011118113V. Postelt1.6712291112LSep 29 · 23:00K. Darin3.0013911113R. Pavelka1.361111481LSep 28 · 21:30T. Janata1.731111113R. Pavelka2.004390WSep 28 · 20:30R. Pavelka1.91101111113J. Trefny1.80127981
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 1 · 11:00J. Prokupek2.00910140M. Vedmoch1.731112163WOct 1 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.57121110113J. Plachy2.251091271LOct 1 · 08:58M. Vedmoch1.736617111J. Plachy2.00111115133LOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382LOct 1 · 07:00J. Stolfa1.8381513123M. Vedmoch1.83111311101WOct 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch1.6711811113J. Plachy2.10711991LSep 28 · 02:00M. Vedmoch2.6311117462V. Cermak1.44761111113LSep 28 · 01:00M. Vedmoch3.501561091D. Tuma1.28131112113LSep 28 · 00:00M. Chlebecek1.44371311113M. Vedmoch2.63111111162LSep 27 · 22:30T. Janata1.5011155113M. Vedmoch2.504131181
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