TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Jaroslav Prokupek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911711114116711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 60.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 50–51 Jaroslav Prokupek Radim Pavelka has won 50 of their 101 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 08:41Sent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 1.61 · Lost
60.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
50-51 in 101
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1620 vs Prokupek 1480
Pavelka
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 80% vs Prokupek 40%
Pavelka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 70% vs Prokupek 50%
Pavelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +4 · Prokupek +1
Pavelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.615 / Prokupek 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Pavelka)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13221138
Pavelka1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 97 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Prokupek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 93 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka8wins
AwayProkupek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka87.5%7 of 8
AwayProkupekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka8Prokupek2n = 10Pavelka took 8 of 10
S2Pavelka7Prokupek3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S3Pavelka5Prokupek5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavelka5Prokupek3n = 8Pavelka took 5 of 8
S5Pavelka2Prokupek1n = 3Pavelka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaProkupekPavelka − ProkupekBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.233.5+7.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 877 vs 667 / 139051%48%447 / 877 vs 667 / 1390Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.61/Prokupek 2.20
Miss
What we said
60.9%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka4011117113J. Prokupek32771171
WSep 20 · 03:00R. Pavelka4591111143J. Prokupek361158121
LSep 19 · 22:00R. Pavelka321165101J. Prokupek4061111123
WSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka47116118113J. Prokupek3451121152
LSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka46111141192J. Prokupek51139117113
WSep 6 · 20:59R. Pavelka331111113J. Prokupek186570
WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka4311156113J. Prokupek326131121
WSep 4 · 14:00R. Pavelka3812114113J. Prokupek291051131
WJul 5 · 08:30R. Pavelka5511101112113J. Prokupek4621291492
WJun 20 · 09:30R. Pavelka331111113J. Prokupek176650
R. Pavelka10
WSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171WSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113WSep 30 · 00:00R. Pavelka2.101011118113V. Postelt1.6712291112LSep 29 · 23:00K. Darin3.0013911113R. Pavelka1.361111481LSep 28 · 21:30T. Janata1.731111113R. Pavelka2.004390WSep 28 · 20:30R. Pavelka1.91101111113J. Trefny1.80127981WSep 28 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.251113113T. Janata1.5781150LSep 28 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.611111113R. Pavelka2.209770WSep 27 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.859111112112R. Pavelka1.85117614133
J. Prokupek10
WSep 30 · 03:00V. Postelt1.508350J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171LSep 30 · 01:00V. Postelt1.831112113J. Prokupek1.8381060WSep 29 · 23:30J. Prokupek2.1011119113J. Plachy1.67361181LSep 29 · 22:00J. Prokupek1.6171260K. Darin2.201114113LSep 24 · 17:30J. Stolfa1.73111011113J. Prokupek2.00112621LSep 24 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.73121110113J. Prokupek2.001031261WSep 24 · 15:00K. Darin2.201228101J. Prokupek1.61101111123WSep 24 · 14:30J. Prokupek1.83111198113P. Klusacek1.8367111172WSep 24 · 03:30J. Prokupek1.601111113K. Darin2.209460
Upcoming Matches
R. Pavelka
Oct 1 · 11:30R. Pavelka1.53J. Plachy2.38—Oct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.50M. Vedmoch2.50—Oct 2 · 10:00R. Pavelka—J. Stolfa——Oct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka—V. Cermak——Oct 2 · 12:30R. Pavelka—J. Plachy——Oct 2 · 22:30R. Pavelka—D. Tuma——Oct 3 · 00:00R. Pavelka—M. Sobisek——Oct 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka—K. Brozhik——Oct 3 · 02:00R. Pavelka—M. Vedmoch——
J. Prokupek
Oct 1 · 11:00J. Prokupek2.00M. Vedmoch1.73—Oct 1 · 12:30J. Prokupek1.91J. Plachy1.80—Oct 2 · 06:00J. Prokupek—P. Zmuda——Oct 2 · 07:00J. Prokupek—V. Cermak——Oct 2 · 08:30J. Prokupek—J. Plachy——Oct 2 · 14:00J. Prokupek—M. Vedmoch——Oct 2 · 15:00J. Prokupek—V. Postelt——Oct 2 · 16:30J. Prokupek—T. Dousa——
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