TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Jan Trefny 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012117119118––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 3–6 Jan Trefny Radim Pavelka has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Trefny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Trefny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1602 vs Trefny 1563
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Trefny 40%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Trefny 40%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Trefny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.91 / Trefny 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pavelka)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13206838
Pavelka1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 65 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Trefny1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 31 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePavelka3wins
AwayTrefny6wins
3 of 9 to a deciderTrefny leads 6–3, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka33.3%2 of 6
AwayTrefny66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka6Trefny3n = 9Pavelka took 6 of 9
S2Pavelka3Trefny6n = 9Trefny took 6 of 9
S3Pavelka5Trefny4n = 9Pavelka took 5 of 9
S4Pavelka4Trefny5n = 9Trefny took 5 of 9
S5Pavelka0Trefny3n = 3Trefny took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricPavelkaTrefnyP − TBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match38.741.0−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime442 / 870 vs 69 / 13650.8%50.7%442 / 870 vs 69 / 136Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.91/Trefny 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 20 · 01:00R. Pavelka27481141J. Trefny3911116113
WSep 9 · 02:58R. Pavelka3711411113J. Trefny33611791
LSep 8 · 22:30R. Pavelka49119111172J. Trefny47811134113
LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka361015561J. Trefny47121311113
WAug 31 · 17:29R. Pavelka4181111113J. Trefny31114971
LAug 31 · 16:00R. Pavelka27116551J. Trefny4291111113
WJul 25 · 23:00R. Pavelka3711312113J. Trefny303111061
LJul 15 · 20:58R. Pavelka4311511882J. Trefny49711911113
LJul 15 · 19:00R. Pavelka511211108102J. Trefny511061211123
R. Pavelka10
WSep 28 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.251113113T. Janata1.5781150LSep 28 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.611111113R. Pavelka2.209770WSep 27 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.859111112112R. Pavelka1.85117614133LSep 27 · 20:30R. Pavelka2.5012880L. Krticka1.501411113WSep 27 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.00117511113J. Stolfa1.7361111992WSep 27 · 18:00M. Vedmoch2.5051151192R. Pavelka1.501111133113LSep 24 · 09:30R. Pavelka2.904480M. Sobisek1.351111113WSep 24 · 08:30M. Vedmoch2.207880R. Pavelka1.611111113WSep 24 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.101111113J. Stolfa1.675970LSep 24 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.401111113R. Pavelka2.756490
J. Trefny10
WSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa1.446610J. Trefny2.631111113LSep 28 · 19:30J. Trefny2.6378111152J. Stolfa1.44111197113LSep 28 · 18:30T. Janata1.4011811113J. Trefny2.75211661WSep 28 · 13:00J. Trefny1.5311111123L. Stacho2.387116101LSep 28 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.911112123J. Trefny1.80310100WSep 28 · 11:00L. Stacho2.20481181J. Trefny1.6111118113LSep 28 · 10:30J. Trefny1.617960M. Kolar2.201111113WSep 24 · 03:00J. Trefny1.731111153P. Klusacek2.0076130LSep 24 · 02:30J. Trefny1.67101060J. Prokupek2.101212113WSep 24 · 01:30J. Dedek2.5051191172J. Trefny1.50119117113
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