TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Jakub Stolfa 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116711511119119
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 15
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 61.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 7–12 Jakub Stolfa Radim Pavelka has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stolfa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Stolfa
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1588 vs Stolfa 1651
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Stolfa 100%
Stolfa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Stolfa 100%
Stolfa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Stolfa +15
Stolfa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.00 / Stolfa 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Stolfa)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13200606
Pavelka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 66 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Stolfa1.73
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 15
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 87 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it100% 36 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it80% 59 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka3wins
AwayStolfa7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka50%3 of 6
AwayStolfa100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka6Stolfa4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Pavelka7Stolfa3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S3Pavelka4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S4Pavelka2Stolfa4n = 6Stolfa took 4 of 6
S5Pavelka0Stolfa4n = 4Stolfa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaStolfaP − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.736.9−2.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 870 vs 207 / 39750.9%52.1%443 / 870 vs 207 / 397Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaPavelka 2.00/Stolfa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 07:30R. Pavelka331111113J. Stolfa215970
LSep 20 · 21:30R. Pavelka4012511482J. Stolfa501011711113
LSep 20 · 18:30R. Pavelka229760J. Stolfa331111113
LAug 23 · 20:00R. Pavelka341110851J. Stolfa3951211113
LAug 22 · 09:30R. Pavelka28511841J. Stolfa4111811113
LAug 22 · 07:00R. Pavelka4061141182J. Stolfa46115118113
WAug 16 · 21:04R. Pavelka331111113J. Stolfa227780
WAug 16 · 18:00R. Pavelka331111113J. Stolfa239770
LAug 14 · 11:30R. Pavelka42111110552J. Stolfa49691211113
LAug 13 · 17:07R. Pavelka4281151262J. Stolfa451121110113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 27 · 18:00M. Vedmoch2.5051151192R. Pavelka1.501111133113LSep 24 · 09:30R. Pavelka2.904480M. Sobisek1.351111113WSep 24 · 08:30M. Vedmoch2.207880R. Pavelka1.611111113WSep 24 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.101111113J. Stolfa1.675970LSep 24 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.401111113R. Pavelka2.756490WSep 23 · 09:30R. Pavelka1.531111123J. Plachy2.3894100WSep 23 · 08:30R. Pavelka1.61411139113J. Plachy2.20119111182LSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka1.83108111382P. Zmuda1.831211511113WSep 23 · 06:00M. Vedmoch1.91312421R. Pavelka1.80111011113LSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.651011711113R. Pavelka2.1012511482
J. Stolfa10
WSep 27 · 20:00M. Vedmoch1.739450J. Stolfa2.001111113WSep 27 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.3311118113L. Krticka3.25771111WSep 26 · 17:30J. Stolfa1.40711116113J. Plachy2.7511681172WSep 26 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.441111113J. Plachy2.633690WSep 26 · 15:30J. Dedek3.4041141162J. Stolfa1.30115115113WSep 26 · 14:00J. Stolfa1.50119811113M. Kolar2.5041111722WSep 25 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.901111113D. Tuma1.805760WSep 25 · 20:30T. Janata1.7391070J. Stolfa2.001112113LSep 24 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.101111113J. Stolfa1.675970WSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.651011711113R. Pavelka2.1012511482
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