TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Jakub Stolfa 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119117––––
Jakub Stolfa
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 7–12 Jakub Stolfa Radim Pavelka has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:13What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stolfa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Stolfa
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1601 vs Stolfa 1496
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Stolfa 0%
Pavelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Stolfa 40%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Stolfa -5
Stolfa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.10 / Stolfa 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavelka)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13183422
Pavelka2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 65 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back23% 20 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Stolfa1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 78 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka3wins
AwayStolfa7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka50%3 of 6
AwayStolfa100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka6Stolfa4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Pavelka7Stolfa3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S3Pavelka4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S4Pavelka2Stolfa4n = 6Stolfa took 4 of 6
S5Pavelka0Stolfa4n = 4Stolfa took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaStolfaP − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.736.9−2.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 881 vs 193 / 38351.1%50.4%450 / 881 vs 193 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaPavelka 2.10/Stolfa 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 07:30R. Pavelka331111113J. Stolfa215970
LSep 20 · 21:30R. Pavelka4012511482J. Stolfa501011711113
LSep 20 · 18:30R. Pavelka229760J. Stolfa331111113
LAug 23 · 20:00R. Pavelka341110851J. Stolfa3951211113
LAug 22 · 09:30R. Pavelka28511841J. Stolfa4111811113
LAug 22 · 07:00R. Pavelka4061141182J. Stolfa46115118113
WAug 16 · 21:04R. Pavelka331111113J. Stolfa227780
WAug 16 · 18:00R. Pavelka331111113J. Stolfa239770
LAug 14 · 11:30R. Pavelka42111110552J. Stolfa49691211113
LAug 13 · 17:07R. Pavelka4281151262J. Stolfa451121110113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 24 · 08:30M. Vedmoch2.207880R. Pavelka1.611111113LSep 24 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.401111113R. Pavelka2.756490WSep 23 · 09:30R. Pavelka1.531111123J. Plachy2.3894100WSep 23 · 08:30R. Pavelka1.61411139113J. Plachy2.20119111182LSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka1.83108111382P. Zmuda1.831211511113WSep 23 · 06:00M. Vedmoch1.91312421R. Pavelka1.80111011113LSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.651011711113R. Pavelka2.1012511482WSep 20 · 20:30P. Budinsky1.83118441R. Pavelka1.8351111113WSep 20 · 19:30R. Pavelka1.911111113V. Postelt1.807570LSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.801111113R. Pavelka1.909760
J. Stolfa10
WSep 24 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006760LSep 24 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.10129881M. Vedmoch1.67101111113LSep 21 · 20:58T. Janata1.80115911113J. Stolfa1.9161111552LSep 21 · 20:00D. Tuma1.731111153J. Stolfa2.0098130LSep 21 · 19:00T. Janata1.832111111113J. Stolfa1.8311132782LSep 21 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.5711811862T. Vinter2.25411811113WSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.651011711113R. Pavelka2.1012511482LSep 20 · 20:00V. Postelt1.8311911113J. Stolfa1.83911581WSep 20 · 19:00P. Budinsky2.004101161J. Stolfa1.7211126113WSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.801111113R. Pavelka1.909760
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