TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Stolfa vs Radim Pavelka 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111711612141113
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 105 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 12–9 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pavelka beat Stolfa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Stolfa
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1636 vs Pavelka 1597
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 80% vs Pavelka 60%
Stolfa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 90% vs Pavelka 60%
Stolfa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +1 · Pavelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stolfa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 1.85 / Pavelka 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stolfa)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13208468
Stolfa1.85
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Pavelka1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStolfa5wins
AwayPavelka5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfa100%3 of 3
AwayPavelka71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Stolfa5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S3Stolfa6Pavelka4n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S4Stolfa3Pavelka3n = 6split evenly
S5Stolfa2Pavelka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStolfaPavelkaS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.9+1.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 400 vs 445 / 87352%51%208 / 400 vs 445 / 873Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaStolfa 1.85/Pavelka 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 21:30J. Stolfa549111112112R. Pavelka51117614133
LSep 27 · 19:00J. Stolfa4661111992R. Pavelka45117511113
LSep 24 · 07:30J. Stolfa215970R. Pavelka331111113
WSep 20 · 21:30J. Stolfa501011711113R. Pavelka4012511482
WSep 20 · 18:30J. Stolfa331111113R. Pavelka229760
WAug 23 · 20:00J. Stolfa3951211113R. Pavelka341110851
WAug 22 · 09:30J. Stolfa4111811113R. Pavelka28511841
WAug 22 · 07:00J. Stolfa46115118113R. Pavelka4061141182
LAug 16 · 21:04J. Stolfa227780R. Pavelka331111113
LAug 16 · 18:00J. Stolfa239770R. Pavelka331111113
J. Stolfa10
WSep 27 · 20:00M. Vedmoch1.739450J. Stolfa2.001111113LSep 27 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.00117511113J. Stolfa1.7361111992WSep 27 · 18:30J. Stolfa1.3311118113L. Krticka3.25771111WSep 26 · 17:30J. Stolfa1.40711116113J. Plachy2.7511681172WSep 26 · 16:00J. Stolfa1.441111113J. Plachy2.633690WSep 26 · 15:30J. Dedek3.4041141162J. Stolfa1.30115115113WSep 26 · 14:00J. Stolfa1.50119811113M. Kolar2.5041111722WSep 25 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.901111113D. Tuma1.805760WSep 25 · 20:30T. Janata1.7391070J. Stolfa2.001112113WSep 25 · 19:30J. Stolfa2.101211511113M. Vedmoch1.6714911772
R. Pavelka10
LSep 27 · 20:30R. Pavelka2.5012880L. Krticka1.501411113WSep 27 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.00117511113J. Stolfa1.7361111992WSep 27 · 18:00M. Vedmoch2.5051151192R. Pavelka1.501111133113LSep 24 · 09:30R. Pavelka2.904480M. Sobisek1.351111113WSep 24 · 08:30M. Vedmoch2.207880R. Pavelka1.611111113WSep 24 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.101111113J. Stolfa1.675970LSep 24 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.401111113R. Pavelka2.756490WSep 23 · 09:30R. Pavelka1.531111123J. Plachy2.3894100WSep 23 · 08:30R. Pavelka1.61411139113J. Plachy2.20119111182LSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka1.83108111382P. Zmuda1.831211511113
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