TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Radim Pavelka 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311911114118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:52 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 70.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 2–8 Radim Pavelka Kyryl Darin has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:52What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Pavelka
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1573 vs Pavelka 1599
Pavelka
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 100% vs Pavelka 60%
Darin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 90% vs Pavelka 60%
Darin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +6 · Pavelka -1
Darin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 3.00 / Pavelka 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Pavelka)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13211189
Darin3.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 170 of 423
Down 0–1, comes back19% 46 of 238
Down 0–2, comes back5% 8 of 148
Pavelka1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 67 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin2wins
AwayPavelka8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin50%2 of 4
AwayPavelka100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Darin3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S3Darin5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S4Darin3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinPavelkaD − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.940.2−4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime773 / 1572 vs 443 / 87249.2%50.8%773 / 1572 vs 443 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaDarin 3.00/Pavelka 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 16:30K. Darin4013611101R. Pavelka4015112123
LJun 24 · 21:30K. Darin33811771R. Pavelka4011711113
WJun 24 · 20:30K. Darin3711411113R. Pavelka32711861
WJun 15 · 16:00K. Darin4517611113R. Pavelka421511881
LJun 7 · 09:00K. Darin24511531R. Pavelka4011711113
LJun 7 · 06:30K. Darin30117661R. Pavelka4291111113
LApr 18 · 08:00K. Darin4276111172R. Pavelka42111127113
LJun 1 · 21:30K. Darin409116141R. Pavelka4511711163
LJun 1 · 19:30K. Darin36129691R. Pavelka43101111113
LMar 22 · 01:00K. Darin32591171R. Pavelka3611113113
K. Darin10
WSep 30 · 00:30K. Darin2.20911119113J. Plachy1.6111941122WSep 29 · 22:00J. Prokupek1.6171260K. Darin2.201114113WSep 26 · 03:30K. Darin1.441116113O. Kucirek2.6331470WSep 26 · 02:30K. Darin1.501112113O. Kucirek2.5021070WSep 26 · 01:30T. Andrle2.0011911542K. Darin1.73911711113WSep 26 · 00:00K. Darin1.671111113P. Picek2.107650WSep 25 · 23:00R. Bartunek2.755540K. Darin1.401111113LSep 25 · 13:30K. Darin1.6361211992J. Steffan2.151110511113WSep 25 · 12:00K. Darin1.4411117113L. Malek2.63581191WSep 25 · 11:30A. Svoboda2.505116101K. Darin1.5011811123
R. Pavelka10
WSep 30 · 00:00R. Pavelka2.101011118113V. Postelt1.6712291112LSep 28 · 21:30T. Janata1.731111113R. Pavelka2.004390WSep 28 · 20:30R. Pavelka1.91101111113J. Trefny1.80127981WSep 28 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.251113113T. Janata1.5781150LSep 28 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.611111113R. Pavelka2.209770WSep 27 · 21:30J. Stolfa1.859111112112R. Pavelka1.85117614133LSep 27 · 20:30R. Pavelka2.5012880L. Krticka1.501411113WSep 27 · 19:00R. Pavelka2.00117511113J. Stolfa1.7361111992WSep 27 · 18:00M. Vedmoch2.5051151192R. Pavelka1.501111133113LSep 24 · 09:30R. Pavelka2.904480M. Sobisek1.351111113
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