TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Dousa vs Michal Vedmoch 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012114811811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:16 and never touched: 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Michal Vedmoch at 59.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousa 29–23 Michal Vedmoch Michal Vedmoch has won 23 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1659.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-23 in 52
Dousa
Wrong
gap of 6 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousa 1444 vs Vedmoch 1509
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousa 40% vs Vedmoch 80%
Vedmoch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousa 40% vs Vedmoch 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousa -1 · Vedmoch +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousa 2.25 / Vedmoch 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Vedmoch)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228035
Dousa2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 37 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back23% 13 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Vedmoch1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 193 of 299
Up 2–0, closes it97% 95 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it80% 145 of 181
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousa4wins
AwayVedmoch6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousa42.9%3 of 7
AwayVedmoch66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousa7Vedmoch3n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S2Dousa5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S3Dousa5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S4Dousa5Vedmoch4n = 9Dousa took 5 of 9
S5Dousa0Vedmoch5n = 5Vedmoch took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousaVedmochD − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.741.5+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousaVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 700 vs 713 / 134849.1%52.9%344 / 700 vs 713 / 1348Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochDousa 2.25/Vedmoch 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.9%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 15:30T. Dousa4281112113M. Vedmoch341171061
WSep 7 · 15:30T. Dousa4312911113M. Vedmoch311011551
LAug 24 · 18:30T. Dousa4688111182M. Vedmoch47111168113
LAug 24 · 16:00T. Dousa4911713992M. Vedmoch539111111113
LAug 14 · 19:00T. Dousa4811119892M. Vedmoch50981111113
LJun 29 · 21:30T. Dousa46111241092M. Vedmoch506101112113
WJun 29 · 20:00T. Dousa46111311113M. Vedmoch34815561
WJun 29 · 14:30T. Dousa3711114113M. Vedmoch32961161
LJun 19 · 21:28T. Dousa4612117972M. Vedmoch501071111113
LJun 19 · 18:30T. Dousa2459100M. Vedmoch341111123
T. Dousa10
WOct 2 · 16:30J. Prokupek1.91511971T. Dousa1.8011711113LOct 2 · 14:30V. Postelt1.571111113T. Dousa2.258890WOct 1 · 17:07T. Dousa1.6351211113M. Kolar2.131110491LOct 1 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk2.63911911113T. Dousa1.4411311752WOct 1 · 15:00M. Kolar2.2511118752T. Dousa1.57471111113LOct 1 · 14:30T. Dousa1.839970J. Dedek1.831111113LSep 23 · 20:58T. Dousa1.673840P. Klusacek2.101111113WSep 23 · 20:00P. Klusacek1.83711391T. Dousa1.8311811113LSep 23 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.631011911113T. Dousa1.4412711862LSep 23 · 18:30T. Dousa1.739580P. Fojt2.001111113
M. Vedmoch10
LOct 2 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.441011671V. Postelt2.6312511113WOct 2 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.67631111143J. Prokupek2.10111196122WOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113LOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140WOct 1 · 11:00J. Prokupek2.00910140M. Vedmoch1.731112163WOct 1 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.57121110113J. Plachy2.251091271LOct 1 · 08:58M. Vedmoch1.736617111J. Plachy2.00111115133LOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382LOct 1 · 07:00J. Stolfa1.8381513123M. Vedmoch1.83111311101WOct 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch1.6711811113J. Plachy2.10711991
Upcoming Matches
T. Dousa
M. Vedmoch
Oct 2 · 22:00M. Vedmoch3.00K. Brozhik1.36—Oct 2 · 23:00M. Vedmoch3.40M. Sobisek1.30—Oct 3 · 00:30M. Vedmoch3.75D. Tuma1.25—Oct 3 · 02:00M. Vedmoch2.50R. Pavelka1.50—Oct 3 · 10:00M. Vedmoch1.91J. Stolfa1.80—Oct 3 · 11:00M. Vedmoch2.10T. Vinter1.67—Oct 3 · 12:30M. Vedmoch1.67J. Prokupek2.10—Oct 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.57J. Prokupek2.25—Oct 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.57P. Fojt2.25—Oct 4 · 01:00M. Vedmoch1.73J. Plachy2.00—
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