TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Miroslav Svedik 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 17
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311119119116––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Svedik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Miroslav Svedik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Miroslav Svedik at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 3–2 Miroslav Svedik Miroslav Svedik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Svoboda beat Svedik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2854.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Svedik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1559 vs Svedik 1359
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 199 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 100% vs Svedik 40%
Svoboda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 100% vs Svedik 20%
Svoboda
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +17 · Svedik +1
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Svedik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svedik form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.95 / Svedik 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svedik)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248827
Svoboda1.95
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 17
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 47 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Svedik1.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 18 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSvoboda3wins
AwaySvedik2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSvoboda leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvobodan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySvedik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda2Svedik3n = 5Svedik took 3 of 5
S2Svoboda5Svedik0n = 5Svoboda took 5 of 5
S3Svoboda2Svedik3n = 5Svedik took 3 of 5
S4Svoboda3Svedik1n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSvobodaSvedikSvoboda − SvedikBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.034.4+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaSvedikBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 389 vs 49 / 13653.5%36%208 / 389 vs 49 / 136Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.533.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvedikSvoboda 1.95/Svedik 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svedik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 5 · 13:30A. Svoboda3631111113M. Svedik35119961
WOct 5 · 10:00A. Svoboda361111143M. Svedik2677120
WSep 11 · 11:00A. Svoboda3711114113M. Svedik22241151
LAug 14 · 12:00A. Svoboda30711481M. Svedik4211911113
LJul 16 · 12:30A. Svoboda46711101172M. Svedik47119124113
A. Svoboda10
WOct 5 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.531211113T. Nohejl2.3810770WOct 5 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.63491181A. Svoboda1.4411113113WOct 5 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.501111143M. Svedik2.5077120WOct 5 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.281111113L. Havel3.503550WOct 5 · 08:00T. Nohejl2.2051030A. Svoboda1.611112113WOct 5 · 07:00L. Havel2.507980A. Svoboda1.501111113WOct 5 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.4081111123V. Dolezal2.751184101WOct 4 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.531811123F. Briza2.38167100WOct 4 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.611210123113D. Horak2.201012101152WOct 4 · 11:30T. Kolenic1.67119881A. Svoboda2.1081111113
M. Svedik10
WOct 5 · 12:30M. Svedik1.6111611113V. Dolezal2.20711221LOct 5 · 11:00M. Svedik1.8311991162T. Nohejl1.83711117113LOct 5 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.501111143M. Svedik2.5077120WSep 11 · 12:59J. Steffan1.9139111142M. Svedik1.80111179113LSep 11 · 12:30M. Svedik1.6111460J. Steffan2.201311113LSep 11 · 11:00M. Svedik1.53241151A. Svoboda2.3811114113LSep 11 · 10:00J. Dedek1.3011116113M. Svedik3.40641131LAug 21 · 13:00T. Kolenic1.831111113M. Svedik1.834590LAug 21 · 12:30M. Svedik2.109640Y. Holovatiuk1.671111113LAug 21 · 11:00M. Svedik1.919960K. Darin1.801111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Svoboda
M. Svedik
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