TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Jiri Dedek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11611131157111113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:31 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Kyryl Darin @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Jiri Dedek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 99 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 54.7%
99 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 41–50 Jiri Dedek Kyryl Darin has won 41 of their 91 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 01:3154.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.9pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Darin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-50 in 91
Dedek
Correct
gap of 9 in 91, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1604 vs Dedek 1438
Darin
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 60% vs Dedek 20%
Darin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 70% vs Dedek 40%
Darin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +2 · Dedek -3
Dedek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.80 / Dedek 1.909
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Darin)-0.9pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13243644
Darin1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 165 of 280
Up 2–0, closes it93% 84 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it78% 113 of 145
Dedek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 84 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin6wins
AwayDedek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin85.7%6 of 7
AwayDedek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin7Dedek3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S2Darin7Dedek3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S3Darin3Dedek7n = 10Dedek took 7 of 10
S4Darin2Dedek5n = 7Dedek took 5 of 7
S5Darin3Dedek1n = 4Darin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinDedekDarin − DedekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.935.8+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinDedekBasisWin rate · lifetime787 / 1580 vs 506 / 98649.8%51.3%787 / 1580 vs 506 / 986Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.80/Dedek 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.7%
Darin · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Kyryl Darin @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 20:30K. Darin4999111192J. Dedek45111184113
WOct 2 · 20:30K. Darin331111113J. Dedek207670
WOct 1 · 09:30K. Darin51111198123J. Dedek46591111102
WOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin501112106113J. Dedek42710121122
WSep 24 · 00:30K. Darin48111196113J. Dedek4488111162
LSep 21 · 12:58K. Darin31112991J. Dedek4071111113
LSep 21 · 10:00K. Darin188550J. Dedek331111113
WSep 20 · 02:59K. Darin3811115113J. Dedek27611191
WSep 20 · 02:30K. Darin331111113J. Dedek226880
LSep 2 · 13:00K. Darin3810111161J. Dedek3912313113
K. Darin10
LOct 6 · 02:58K. Darin2.387620P. Fojt1.531111113WOct 6 · 01:30P. Fojt1.44137971K. Darin2.63111111113WOct 6 · 00:00K. Darin2.1011119113J. Plachy1.67881171LOct 5 · 23:00J. Prokupek1.7312115133K. Darin2.0010811111WOct 3 · 21:30K. Darin1.7311119123L. Krok2.007511101LOct 3 · 20:30J. Dedek2.00111184113K. Darin1.7399111192WOct 3 · 19:30K. Darin2.0012116113L. Krok1.731061181WOct 3 · 18:30J. Plachy1.6181161152K. Darin2.20119116113WOct 3 · 17:00F. Briza1.876790K. Darin1.831111113LOct 3 · 16:00K. Darin2.7561230M. Kolar1.401114113
J. Dedek10
LOct 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.731111113J. Dedek2.009660LOct 5 · 23:30J. Dedek1.57108111192P. Fojt2.25121199113LOct 5 · 22:00J. Dedek1.805630J. Prokupek1.911111113WOct 5 · 17:30J. Dedek2.631111910113T. Kolenic1.4449111292LOct 5 · 16:30J. Dedek2.3811101151T. Kolenic1.5313129113WOct 5 · 15:00J. Dedek1.831115113T. Dousa1.8381350WOct 5 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38115941J. Dedek1.5391111113LOct 3 · 21:05J. Plachy1.471111113J. Dedek2.508860WOct 3 · 20:30J. Dedek2.00111184113K. Darin1.7399111192LOct 3 · 19:00J. Dedek2.257860J. Plachy1.571111113
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