TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Plachy vs Kyryl Darin 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119611116511
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:52 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Plachy to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jiri Plachy @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Jiri Plachy at 54.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 35–38 Kyryl Darin Jiri Plachy has won 35 of their 73 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:5254.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Plachy
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-38 in 73
Darin
Correct
gap of 3 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1480 vs Darin 1595
Darin
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 40% vs Darin 60%
Darin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 40% vs Darin 70%
Darin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy +2 · Darin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Plachy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 1.615 / Darin 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Plachy)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233052
Plachy1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 124 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it97% 66 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it88% 95 of 108
Darin2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 174 of 420
Down 0–1, comes back20% 47 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back6% 8 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy7wins
AwayDarin3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlachy leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy66.7%6 of 9
AwayDarinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy9Darin1n = 10Plachy took 9 of 10
S2Plachy6Darin4n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S3Plachy7Darin3n = 10Plachy took 7 of 10
S4Plachy3Darin3n = 6split evenly
S5Plachy1Darin2n = 3Darin took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyDarinP − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.633.2+4.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime730 / 1587 vs 783 / 158146%49.5%730 / 1587 vs 783 / 1581Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlachyPlachy 1.61/Darin 2.20
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Plachy · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jiri Plachy @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 00:30J. Plachy3711941122K. Darin51911119113
WSep 23 · 13:28J. Plachy51119119113K. Darin4581191162
LSep 23 · 12:30J. Plachy33128851K. Darin43101111113
WSep 21 · 16:00J. Plachy341112113K. Darin2381050
LSep 21 · 12:00J. Plachy3411711502K. Darin44811311113
WSep 5 · 20:30J. Plachy4211118123K. Darin315511101
WSep 2 · 12:30J. Plachy351111133K. Darin1843110
WSep 1 · 12:59J. Plachy43101111113K. Darin34129761
WSep 1 · 12:30J. Plachy341211113K. Darin2210570
WAug 29 · 20:30J. Plachy331111113K. Darin218940
J. Plachy10
WOct 3 · 19:00J. Dedek2.257860J. Plachy1.571111113WOct 2 · 12:59J. Plachy2.25711511113R. Pavelka1.5711611972WOct 2 · 12:30R. Pavelka1.53911691J. Plachy2.3811911113LOct 2 · 11:30J. Plachy2.75812111062J. Stolfa1.401110812113LOct 2 · 10:30V. Cermak1.4411911113J. Plachy2.63411781LOct 2 · 09:18J. Plachy2.001212881J. Prokupek1.73141011113WOct 2 · 08:30J. Prokupek1.8311611982J. Plachy1.83811811113LOct 2 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75111151122P. Zmuda1.40136118113LOct 2 · 06:30V. Cermak1.44111111113J. Plachy2.63137791LOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113
K. Darin10
WOct 3 · 17:00F. Briza1.876790K. Darin1.831111113LOct 3 · 16:00K. Darin2.7561230M. Kolar1.401114113WOct 3 · 15:30F. Briza2.10961161K. Darin1.6711119113LOct 3 · 14:00K. Darin1.736990D. Horak2.001111113WOct 2 · 21:30T. Dousa1.738511111K. Darin2.0011119133WOct 2 · 20:30J. Dedek1.837670K. Darin1.831111113WOct 2 · 19:30K. Darin2.101111511123T. Dousa1.67591113102LOct 2 · 18:30M. Sedlak1.53911911113K. Darin2.3811311892WOct 2 · 03:30K. Darin1.4711812113O. Kucirek2.508111081WOct 2 · 02:00P. Picek2.2551161142K. Darin1.57115118113
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