TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Cermak vs Jiri Plachy 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113117117119––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:25 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 66.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 49–39 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 39 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2566.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-39 in 88
Cermak
Correct
gap of 10 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1576 vs Plachy 1471
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 60% vs Plachy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 60% vs Plachy 30%
Cermak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -2 · Plachy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.444 / Plachy 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Cermak)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13226781
Cermak1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 153 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it92% 76 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it78% 121 of 155
Plachy2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 139 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back21% 40 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak7wins
AwayPlachy3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak100%6 of 6
AwayPlachy75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak6Plachy4n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Cermak6Plachy4n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S3Cermak7Plachy3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S4Cermak6Plachy1n = 7Cermak took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakPlachyC − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.436.1+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime557 / 1091 vs 727 / 158051.1%46%557 / 1091 vs 727 / 1580Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakCermak 1.44/Plachy 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 06:30V. Cermak44111111113J. Plachy36137791
LJun 2 · 18:30V. Cermak184950J. Plachy331111113
WMay 21 · 12:59V. Cermak341111123J. Plachy2899100
WMay 21 · 12:00V. Cermak43111011113J. Plachy34712961
WMay 21 · 07:30V. Cermak3511211113J. Plachy29611661
WMay 20 · 13:30V. Cermak4411127143J. Plachy4071011121
LMay 20 · 12:30V. Cermak4781441292J. Plachy5511121110113
LMay 20 · 09:30V. Cermak48411111392J. Plachy53118815113
WMay 20 · 07:30V. Cermak3811511113J. Plachy32611781
WMay 15 · 23:30V. Cermak331111113J. Plachy219480
V. Cermak10
WOct 2 · 07:00J. Prokupek2.255711121V. Cermak1.5711116143LSep 29 · 13:30M. Sobisek1.57611511113V. Cermak2.2511811792LSep 29 · 12:00M. Sobisek1.731111113V. Cermak2.007510WSep 29 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.2511115452V. Cermak1.57791111113WSep 29 · 10:30V. Cermak1.401111113J. Trefny2.758590WSep 29 · 09:00V. Cermak2.20111011113M. Sobisek1.61612991LSep 29 · 08:30V. Cermak1.258119101J. Trefny3.7511811123LSep 29 · 07:00V. Cermak1.9121170M. Sobisek1.801113113WSep 29 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.258115101V. Cermak1.5711711123WSep 28 · 03:00V. Cermak1.731111611173D. Tuma2.00721113152
J. Plachy10
LOct 2 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75111151122P. Zmuda1.40136118113LOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113WOct 1 · 12:30J. Prokupek1.91111361372J. Plachy1.807151111113WOct 1 · 11:30J. Plachy2.381181011113R. Pavelka1.5361112992LOct 1 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.57121110113J. Plachy2.251091271WOct 1 · 08:58M. Vedmoch1.736617111J. Plachy2.00111115133LOct 1 · 08:30J. Stolfa1.40125113113J. Plachy2.75101151192LOct 1 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75115981P. Zmuda1.4091111113LOct 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch1.6711811113J. Plachy2.10711991LSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113
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