TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Prokupek vs Vladimir Cermak 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5117111161214––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Prokupek above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 77 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 60.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Prokupek 37–69 Vladimir Cermak Jaroslav Prokupek has won 37 of their 106 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5760.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-69 in 106
Cermak
Correct
gap of 32 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prokupek 1444 vs Cermak 1576
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prokupek 20% vs Cermak 60%
Cermak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prokupek 30% vs Cermak 60%
Cermak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prokupek -4 · Cermak +1
Prokupek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prokupek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProkupek 2.25 / Cermak 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Cermak)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227216
Prokupek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back16% 19 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Cermak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 153 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it92% 76 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it78% 121 of 155
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProkupek5wins
AwayCermak5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProkupek100%4 of 4
AwayCermak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prokupek4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Prokupek8Cermak2n = 10Prokupek took 8 of 10
S3Prokupek4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Prokupek2Cermak5n = 7Cermak took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricProkupekCermakP − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.7−1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProkupekCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime665 / 1388 vs 557 / 109147.9%51.1%665 / 1388 vs 557 / 1091Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakProkupek 2.25/Cermak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 07:00J. Prokupek355711121V. Cermak4211116143
LJun 3 · 07:30J. Prokupek313144101V. Cermak46111211123
WJun 2 · 19:30J. Prokupek48121213113V. Cermak4410101591
WMay 29 · 20:59J. Prokupek331111113V. Cermak247890
LMay 29 · 20:30J. Prokupek2671090V. Cermak341112113
WMay 25 · 13:30J. Prokupek47111177113V. Cermak4176111162
WMay 25 · 11:00J. Prokupek341111123V. Cermak2183100
WMay 21 · 11:00J. Prokupek4781711113V. Cermak391115761
LMay 20 · 10:00J. Prokupek30511951V. Cermak4211911113
LMay 18 · 11:00J. Prokupek32613761V. Cermak44111111113
J. Prokupek10
LOct 2 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.361111113J. Prokupek3.008740LOct 1 · 13:11R. Pavelka1.831111113J. Prokupek1.838350LOct 1 · 12:30J. Prokupek1.91111361372J. Plachy1.807151111113LOct 1 · 11:00J. Prokupek2.00910140M. Vedmoch1.731112163WOct 1 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.6197111172J. Prokupek2.20111146113WSep 30 · 03:00V. Postelt1.508350J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171LSep 30 · 01:00V. Postelt1.831112113J. Prokupek1.8381060WSep 29 · 23:30J. Prokupek2.1011119113J. Plachy1.67361181LSep 29 · 22:00J. Prokupek1.6171260K. Darin2.201114113
V. Cermak10
WOct 2 · 06:30V. Cermak1.44111111113J. Plachy2.63137791LSep 29 · 13:30M. Sobisek1.57611511113V. Cermak2.2511811792LSep 29 · 12:00M. Sobisek1.731111113V. Cermak2.007510WSep 29 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.2511115452V. Cermak1.57791111113WSep 29 · 10:30V. Cermak1.401111113J. Trefny2.758590WSep 29 · 09:00V. Cermak2.20111011113M. Sobisek1.61612991LSep 29 · 08:30V. Cermak1.258119101J. Trefny3.7511811123LSep 29 · 07:00V. Cermak1.9121170M. Sobisek1.801113113WSep 29 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.258115101V. Cermak1.5711711123WSep 28 · 03:00V. Cermak1.731111611173D. Tuma2.00721113152
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