TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Jiri Plachy 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119611911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched: 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 64.4%
77 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 45–34 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 34 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2964.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-34 in 79
Pavelka
Wrong
gap of 11 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1586 vs Plachy 1449
Pavelka
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Plachy 20%
Pavelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Plachy 30%
Pavelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -2 · Plachy -3
Plachy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.533 / Plachy 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Pavelka)-0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13227214
Pavelka1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 98 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 68 of 87
Plachy2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 139 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back21% 40 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka7wins
AwayPlachy3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka83.3%5 of 6
AwayPlachy50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka6Plachy4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Pavelka5Plachy5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavelka8Plachy2n = 10Pavelka took 8 of 10
S4Pavelka4Plachy4n = 8split evenly
S5Pavelka2Plachy1n = 3Pavelka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaPlachyPavelka − PlachyBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.5+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 883 vs 728 / 158550.9%45.9%449 / 883 vs 728 / 1585Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.53/Plachy 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.4%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 11:30R. Pavelka4761112992J. Plachy511181011113
WSep 30 · 01:30R. Pavelka517111111113J. Plachy4211138732
WSep 23 · 09:30R. Pavelka341111123J. Plachy2394100
WSep 23 · 08:30R. Pavelka48411139113J. Plachy50119111182
WAug 30 · 00:30R. Pavelka371115113J. Plachy3081390
WAug 27 · 15:00R. Pavelka4011711113J. Plachy32511881
WAug 25 · 19:30R. Pavelka4111811113J. Plachy33511891
LAug 13 · 14:00R. Pavelka36911881J. Plachy4211911113
LAug 11 · 13:03R. Pavelka3511113101J. Plachy4261311123
WAug 11 · 11:30R. Pavelka3511211113J. Plachy30911371
R. Pavelka10
LOct 2 · 12:59J. Plachy2.25711511113R. Pavelka1.5711611972LOct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka2.004970V. Cermak1.731111113LOct 2 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.5761111123R. Pavelka2.251195101WOct 1 · 13:11R. Pavelka1.831111113J. Prokupek1.838350WOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140LOct 1 · 11:30J. Plachy2.381181011113R. Pavelka1.5361112992LOct 1 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.6197111172J. Prokupek2.20111146113WSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171WSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113
J. Plachy10
WOct 2 · 12:59J. Plachy2.25711511113R. Pavelka1.5711611972LOct 2 · 11:30J. Plachy2.75812111062J. Stolfa1.401110812113LOct 2 · 10:30V. Cermak1.4411911113J. Plachy2.63411781LOct 2 · 09:18J. Plachy2.001212881J. Prokupek1.73141011113WOct 2 · 08:30J. Prokupek1.8311611982J. Plachy1.83811811113LOct 2 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75111151122P. Zmuda1.40136118113LOct 2 · 06:30V. Cermak1.44111111113J. Plachy2.63137791LOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113WOct 1 · 11:30J. Plachy2.381181011113R. Pavelka1.5361112992LSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113
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