TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Plachy vs Jakub Stolfa 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81112101181012611
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Jakub Stolfa at 69.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 11–19 Jakub Stolfa Jiri Plachy has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2969.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Stolfa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Stolfa
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1454 vs Stolfa 1661
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 207 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 20% vs Stolfa 60%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 40% vs Stolfa 80%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy -2 · Stolfa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Stolfa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 2.75 / Stolfa 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Stolfa)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228178
Plachy2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 139 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back21% 40 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 106
Stolfa1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 96 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it100% 41 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it81% 66 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy0wins
AwayStolfa10wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 10–0, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy0%0 of 3
AwayStolfa100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy3Stolfa7n = 10Stolfa took 7 of 10
S2Plachy4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S3Plachy3Stolfa7n = 10Stolfa took 7 of 10
S4Plachy3Stolfa5n = 8Stolfa took 5 of 8
S5Plachy0Stolfa5n = 5Stolfa took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyStolfaP − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.842.5−7.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime728 / 1584 vs 224 / 42546%52.7%728 / 1584 vs 224 / 425Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaPlachy 2.75/Stolfa 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 08:30J. Plachy46101151192J. Stolfa42125113113
LSep 26 · 17:30J. Plachy4311681172J. Stolfa46711116113
LSep 26 · 16:00J. Plachy183690J. Stolfa331111113
LAug 18 · 08:00J. Plachy3710111061J. Stolfa4412912113
LAug 13 · 15:00J. Plachy3711411562J. Stolfa46711611113
LAug 13 · 11:30J. Plachy2284100J. Stolfa341111123
LAug 11 · 07:30J. Plachy33791161J. Stolfa3711114113
LAug 8 · 18:30J. Plachy27811261J. Stolfa4211911113
LAug 7 · 20:30J. Plachy4188111222J. Stolfa511111810113
LAug 7 · 13:09J. Plachy4411118772J. Stolfa50891111113
J. Plachy10
LOct 2 · 10:30V. Cermak1.4411911113J. Plachy2.63411781LOct 2 · 09:18J. Plachy2.001212881J. Prokupek1.73141011113WOct 2 · 08:30J. Prokupek1.8311611982J. Plachy1.83811811113LOct 2 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75111151122P. Zmuda1.40136118113LOct 2 · 06:30V. Cermak1.44111111113J. Plachy2.63137791LOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113WOct 1 · 12:30J. Prokupek1.91111361372J. Plachy1.807151111113WOct 1 · 11:30J. Plachy2.381181011113R. Pavelka1.5361112992LOct 1 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.57121110113J. Plachy2.251091271WOct 1 · 08:58M. Vedmoch1.736617111J. Plachy2.00111115133
J. Stolfa10
LOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113WOct 2 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.5761111123R. Pavelka2.251195101LOct 1 · 21:29J. Stolfa2.00911991K. Kapras1.7311911113WOct 1 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.611211113M. Sobisek2.2010420LOct 1 · 19:30K. Kapras1.67911119113J. Stolfa2.1011771142WOct 1 · 18:00J. Stolfa2.10116119113K. Brozhik1.6781171172WOct 1 · 09:30J. Stolfa1.851111113P. Zmuda1.853270WOct 1 · 08:30J. Stolfa1.40125113113J. Plachy2.75101151192WOct 1 · 07:00J. Stolfa1.8381513123M. Vedmoch1.83111311101WOct 1 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80112871J. Stolfa1.9161111113
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