TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Vladimir Cermak 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911711––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Vladimir Cermak at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 18–19 Vladimir Cermak Radim Pavelka has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-19 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1600 vs Cermak 1611
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Cermak 100%
Cermak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Cermak 80%
Cermak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Cermak +5
Cermak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Cermak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.00 / Cermak 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cermak)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227215
Pavelka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 67 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Cermak1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 153 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it92% 76 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it78% 121 of 155
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka4wins
AwayCermak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka75%3 of 4
AwayCermak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Pavelka8Cermak2n = 10Pavelka took 8 of 10
S3Pavelka2Cermak8n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S4Pavelka5Cermak5n = 10split evenly
S5Pavelka1Cermak2n = 3Cermak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaCermakP − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.441.4−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 882 vs 560 / 109450.9%51.2%449 / 882 vs 560 / 1094Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CermakPavelka 2.00/Cermak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 6 · 06:00R. Pavelka33911761V. Cermak3911611113
LMay 4 · 07:30R. Pavelka27811531V. Cermak3911611113
LMay 1 · 01:00R. Pavelka42711212102V. Cermak511171110123
WApr 21 · 15:30R. Pavelka561391011133V. Cermak521111127112
WApr 17 · 08:59R. Pavelka3811511113V. Cermak27611641
WApr 17 · 07:00R. Pavelka3851111113V. Cermak35119961
LApr 12 · 19:30R. Pavelka341011761V. Cermak4112711113
WApr 11 · 09:30R. Pavelka4511148123V. Cermak3851211101
LApr 11 · 07:00R. Pavelka385129121V. Cermak46111011143
LApr 9 · 08:00R. Pavelka4311115882V. Cermak46851111113
R. Pavelka10
LOct 2 · 12:30R. Pavelka1.53911691J. Plachy2.3811911113LOct 2 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.5761111123R. Pavelka2.251195101WOct 1 · 13:11R. Pavelka1.831111113J. Prokupek1.838350WOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140LOct 1 · 11:30J. Plachy2.381181011113R. Pavelka1.5361112992LOct 1 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.6197111172J. Prokupek2.20111146113WSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171WSep 30 · 01:30J. Plachy2.2511138732R. Pavelka1.577111111113WSep 30 · 00:00R. Pavelka2.101011118113V. Postelt1.6712291112
V. Cermak10
WOct 2 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.258560V. Cermak1.571111113WOct 2 · 10:30V. Cermak1.4411911113J. Plachy2.63411781WOct 2 · 09:30V. Cermak2.001114113P. Zmuda1.7361220WOct 2 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6761101122V. Cermak2.10112114113WOct 2 · 07:00J. Prokupek2.255711121V. Cermak1.5711116143WOct 2 · 06:30V. Cermak1.44111111113J. Plachy2.63137791LSep 29 · 13:30M. Sobisek1.57611511113V. Cermak2.2511811792LSep 29 · 12:00M. Sobisek1.731111113V. Cermak2.007510WSep 29 · 11:00J. Stolfa2.2511115452V. Cermak1.57791111113WSep 29 · 10:30V. Cermak1.401111113J. Trefny2.758590
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