TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Dousa vs Kyryl Darin 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8115111191113––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 79 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousa 13–11 Kyryl Darin Kyryl Darin has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Darin beat Dousa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2854.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Dousa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousa 1477 vs Darin 1615
Darin
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousa 80% vs Darin 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousa 60% vs Darin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousa +1 · Darin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousa 1.73 / Darin 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Darin)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13235138
Dousa1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 82 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it69% 52 of 75
Darin2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 172 of 420
Down 0–1, comes back20% 47 of 235
Down 0–2, comes back6% 8 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousa5wins
AwayDarin5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousa75%3 of 4
AwayDarin66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousa4Darin6n = 10Darin took 6 of 10
S2Dousa6Darin4n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S3Dousa7Darin3n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S4Dousa5Darin4n = 9Dousa took 5 of 9
S5Dousa2Darin4n = 6Darin took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousaDarinDousa − DarinBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.343.0+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousaDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 706 vs 782 / 158049.3%49.5%348 / 706 vs 782 / 1580Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDousa 1.73/Darin 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 19:30T. Dousa48591113102K. Darin501111511123
WAug 27 · 15:30T. Dousa47591111113K. Darin4411118862
WAug 20 · 19:30T. Dousa331111113K. Darin219480
WAug 18 · 19:30T. Dousa46131110123K. Darin3811512101
WAug 17 · 20:00T. Dousa52611119153K. Darin51118811132
LAug 11 · 20:58T. Dousa4661211892K. Darin501110711113
WAug 11 · 20:00T. Dousa4712159113K. Darin4010131161
LAug 10 · 16:00T. Dousa4889131172K. Darin531111119113
LAug 5 · 19:00T. Dousa4891111982K. Darin45116611113
LAug 4 · 20:00T. Dousa28118451K. Darin3851111113
T. Dousa10
WOct 2 · 20:00T. Dousa4.331111113M. Sedlak1.208940LOct 2 · 19:30K. Darin2.101111511123T. Dousa1.67591113102WOct 2 · 18:00T. Dousa2.00111315123J. Dedek1.7381117101WOct 2 · 17:05T. Dousa1.10111197113J. Prokupek6.5098111182WOct 2 · 16:30J. Prokupek1.91511971T. Dousa1.8011711113LOct 2 · 15:30T. Dousa2.251011881M. Vedmoch1.5712411113LOct 2 · 14:30V. Postelt1.571111113T. Dousa2.258890WOct 1 · 17:07T. Dousa1.6351211113M. Kolar2.131110491LOct 1 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk2.63911911113T. Dousa1.4411311752WOct 1 · 15:00M. Kolar2.2511118752T. Dousa1.57471111113
K. Darin10
WOct 2 · 20:30J. Dedek1.837670K. Darin1.831111113WOct 2 · 19:30K. Darin2.101111511123T. Dousa1.67591113102LOct 2 · 18:30M. Sedlak1.53911911113K. Darin2.3811311892WOct 2 · 03:30K. Darin1.4711812113O. Kucirek2.508111081WOct 2 · 02:00P. Picek2.2551161142K. Darin1.57115118113WOct 2 · 00:30K. Darin1.5371111113J. Steffan2.38117491WOct 1 · 23:00K. Darin1.67148117113M. Placek2.10121191142LOct 1 · 22:00O. Kucirek2.7511117123K. Darin1.406911101WOct 1 · 09:30J. Dedek1.85591111102K. Darin1.85111198123LOct 1 · 08:00K. Darin1.6198131162J. Jnr2.201111115113
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