TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Jan Steffan 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711117114119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:21 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 64.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 80–37 Jan Steffan Jan Steffan has won 37 of their 117 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Darin beat Steffan 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2164.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
80-37 in 117
Darin
Correct
gap of 43 in 117, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1589 vs Steffan 1448
Darin
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 60% vs Steffan 20%
Darin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 70% vs Steffan 40%
Darin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +1 · Steffan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.533 / Steffan 2.375
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Darin)-0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13222590
Darin1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 161 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it93% 84 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it77% 111 of 144
Steffan2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 87 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin5wins
AwaySteffan5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin60%3 of 5
AwaySteffan60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S2Darin6Steffan4n = 10Darin took 6 of 10
S3Darin7Steffan3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S4Darin3Steffan5n = 8Steffan took 5 of 8
S5Darin2Steffan3n = 5Steffan took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinSteffanD − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.8+2.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime779 / 1578 vs 461 / 96349.4%47.9%779 / 1578 vs 461 / 963Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.53/Steffan 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 07:30K. Darin531111117133J. Steffan45134611112
LSep 25 · 13:30K. Darin4761211992J. Steffan481110511113
WSep 25 · 10:00K. Darin341111123J. Steffan2486100
LSep 14 · 11:30K. Darin30281281J. Steffan43111110113
WSep 8 · 03:30K. Darin4391112113J. Steffan291171011
WSep 7 · 22:30K. Darin45114811113J. Steffan4161111672
WSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin341112113J. Steffan2281040
LSep 1 · 02:59K. Darin28117731J. Steffan3741111113
LSep 1 · 00:30K. Darin4711147692J. Steffan461121111113
LAug 26 · 08:00K. Darin4357111192J. Steffan43111155113
K. Darin10
WOct 1 · 23:00K. Darin1.67148117113M. Placek2.10121191142LOct 1 · 22:00O. Kucirek2.7511117123K. Darin1.406911101WOct 1 · 09:30J. Dedek1.85591111102K. Darin1.85111198123LOct 1 · 08:00K. Darin1.6198131162J. Jnr2.201111115113WOct 1 · 07:30J. Steffan2.38134611112K. Darin1.531111117133WOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin1.831112106113J. Dedek1.83710121122LSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:00V. Postelt1.141411991K. Darin5.0016511113WSep 30 · 00:30K. Darin2.20911119113J. Plachy1.6111941122WSep 29 · 23:00K. Darin3.0013911113R. Pavelka1.361111481
J. Steffan10
WOct 1 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.836470J. Steffan1.831111113LOct 1 · 22:30J. Steffan1.91139130P. Picek1.801511153LOct 1 · 09:00J. Jnr1.60111110113J. Steffan2.20851231LOct 1 · 08:30J. Dedek1.401111113J. Steffan2.758670LOct 1 · 07:30J. Steffan2.38134611112K. Darin1.531111117133LOct 1 · 06:30J. Jnr1.61711119113J. Steffan2.2011851172WSep 30 · 03:28M. Placek1.40511991J. Steffan2.7511911113LSep 30 · 02:30M. Placek1.441111113J. Steffan2.634760WSep 30 · 01:00O. Fejtek1.831011591J. Steffan1.8312911113WSep 29 · 23:30J. Steffan1.91412124113P. Picek1.801110101192
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