TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Jan Steffan 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched: 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Dedek to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jiri Dedek at 67.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 16–12 Jan Steffan Jan Steffan has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2867.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 4.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Dedek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Dedek
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1437 vs Steffan 1471
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 40% vs Steffan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Steffan 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek +1 · Steffan -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Dedek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 1.40 / Steffan 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Dedek)-4.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222330
Dedek1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 139 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it82% 104 of 127
Steffan2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 87 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek9wins
AwaySteffan1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDedek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek100%5 of 5
AwaySteffan20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S2Dedek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S3Dedek9Steffan1n = 10Dedek took 9 of 10
S4Dedek6Steffan3n = 9Dedek took 6 of 9
S5Dedek3Steffan0n = 3Dedek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekSteffanD − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.234.9+7.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 965 vs 461 / 96151.4%48%496 / 965 vs 461 / 961Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DedekDedek 1.40/Steffan 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Dedek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 11:30J. Dedek43101111113J. Steffan29128721
WSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek4181111113J. Steffan30117661
WJun 3 · 17:30J. Dedek561114119113J. Steffan49131261172
WJun 3 · 14:30J. Dedek47124911113J. Steffan45101111582
LMay 21 · 10:00J. Dedek311151141J. Steffan4213117113
WMay 4 · 00:00J. Dedek43111011113J. Steffan34712781
WFeb 18 · 11:30J. Dedek46511118113J. Steffan3911781122
WFeb 6 · 13:00J. Dedek4211812113J. Steffan359111051
WJan 4 · 16:00J. Dedek4011612113J. Steffan317111031
WDec 28 · 00:30J. Dedek331111113J. Steffan153390
J. Dedek10
LOct 1 · 09:30J. Dedek1.85591111102K. Darin1.85111198123WOct 1 · 07:00J. Dedek1.33911911113J. Jnr3.2511411492LOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin1.831112106113J. Dedek1.83710121122LSep 29 · 17:30T. Kolenic1.5311811113J. Dedek2.38811661WSep 29 · 16:00J. Dedek1.36781111113J. Jnr3.0011112562LSep 29 · 15:30T. Kolenic1.6113129113J. Dedek2.2011101181WSep 29 · 14:00J. Dedek1.3341111113F. Briza3.25118591LSep 28 · 17:00L. Stacho1.67391411113J. Dedek2.10111112742LSep 28 · 16:30J. Dedek2.103660M. Kolar1.671111113LSep 28 · 15:00J. Dedek2.1011124982L. Stacho1.674101111113
J. Steffan10
LOct 1 · 09:00J. Jnr1.60111110113J. Steffan2.20851231LOct 1 · 07:30J. Steffan2.38134611112K. Darin1.531111117133LOct 1 · 06:30J. Jnr1.61711119113J. Steffan2.2011851172WSep 30 · 03:28M. Placek1.40511991J. Steffan2.7511911113LSep 30 · 02:30M. Placek1.441111113J. Steffan2.634760WSep 30 · 01:00O. Fejtek1.831011591J. Steffan1.8312911113WSep 29 · 23:30J. Steffan1.91412124113P. Picek1.801110101192WSep 29 · 22:00J. Steffan1.831171111113R. Bartunek1.8391113352LSep 27 · 13:00J. Steffan1.5791111282L. Malek2.25115711113LSep 27 · 12:00M. Placek1.53115512113J. Steffan2.38711111022
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