TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Jan Varcl Jnr 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911114911114119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:58 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Dedek to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Jan Varcl Jnr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Jiri Dedek at 68.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 4–0 Jan Varcl Jnr Jan Varcl Jnr has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5868.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 6.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Dedek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Dedek
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1437 vs Jnr 1478
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 40% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 30% vs Jnr 50%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek -2 · Jnr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Dedek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 1.333 / Jnr 3.25
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Dedek)-6.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222341
Dedek1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 139 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it98% 77 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it82% 104 of 127
Jnr3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDedek4wins
AwayJnr0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderDedek leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S2Dedek3Jnr1n = 4Dedek took 3 of 4
S3Dedek3Jnr1n = 4Dedek took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDedekJnrD − JBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.830.2+11.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 965 vs 128 / 24951.4%51.4%496 / 965 vs 128 / 249Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DedekDedek 1.33/Jnr 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Dedek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 1 · 07:00J. Dedek51911911113J. Jnr3911411492
WSep 29 · 16:00J. Dedek48781111113J. Jnr3511112562
WMar 6 · 00:30J. Dedek331111113J. Jnr197750
WFeb 6 · 07:30J. Dedek351113113J. Jnr2891180
J. Dedek10
LOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin1.831112106113J. Dedek1.83710121122LSep 29 · 17:30T. Kolenic1.5311811113J. Dedek2.38811661WSep 29 · 16:00J. Dedek1.36781111113J. Jnr3.0011112562LSep 29 · 15:30T. Kolenic1.6113129113J. Dedek2.2011101181WSep 29 · 14:00J. Dedek1.3341111113F. Briza3.25118591LSep 28 · 17:00L. Stacho1.67391411113J. Dedek2.10111112742LSep 28 · 16:30J. Dedek2.103660M. Kolar1.671111113LSep 28 · 15:00J. Dedek2.1011124982L. Stacho1.674101111113WSep 28 · 14:00K. Novak1.831011531J. Dedek1.8312911113LSep 27 · 03:30T. Varnuska1.731111113J. Dedek2.005350
J. Jnr10
WOct 1 · 08:00K. Darin1.6198131162J. Jnr2.201111115113WOct 1 · 06:30J. Jnr1.61711119113J. Steffan2.2011851172LSep 29 · 17:00J. Jnr1.83711781F. Briza1.8311911113LSep 29 · 16:00J. Dedek1.36781111113J. Jnr3.0011112562WSep 29 · 15:00F. Briza1.571411281J. Jnr2.2516211113LSep 29 · 14:30J. Jnr2.758101171T. Kolenic1.4011129113LSep 24 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.671111113J. Jnr2.108790WSep 24 · 02:30J. Jnr1.571111113P. Picek2.253920WSep 24 · 01:30T. Andrle2.10510110J. Jnr1.671112133WSep 24 · 00:00J. Jnr1.3661111113A. Svoboda3.00114771
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