TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Varcl Jnr vs Petr Picek 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 24Finished
Jan Varcl Jnr
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119112––––
Petr Picek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:52 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJan Varcl Jnr to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Varcl Jnr above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 47 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Jan Varcl Jnr at 59.3%
47 points played in total.
H2H Jan Varcl Jnr 6–4 Petr Picek Petr Picek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Jnr
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1519 vs Picek 1487
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Picek 60%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 80% vs Picek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Picek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.57 / Picek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jnr)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13178800
Jnr1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 39 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it80% 24 of 30
Picek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 22 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwayPicek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr100%4 of 4
AwayPicek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Picek6n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S2Jnr4Picek6n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S3Jnr7Picek3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S4Jnr4Picek3n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S5Jnr2Picek1n = 3Jnr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrPicekJ − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.0+0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 241 vs 282 / 55751.9%50.6%125 / 241 vs 282 / 557Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.57/Picek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 24:00J. Jnr4391211113P. Picek391110991
WSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr50791111123P. Picek43111165102
LSep 1 · 01:00J. Jnr27371161P. Picek3611113113
LApr 30 · 24:00J. Jnr209560P. Picek331111113
LMar 19 · 24:30J. Jnr3451111612P. Picek51119911113
WFeb 26 · 01:30J. Jnr45111211113P. Picek27514351
LJan 13 · 03:30J. Jnr2510870P. Picek341211113
WSep 9 · 01:30J. Jnr381111163P. Picek2446140
WMay 6 · 24:00J. Jnr4112117113P. Picek301061131
WApr 16 · 22:00J. Jnr52118117153P. Picek53911911132
J. Jnr10
WSep 24 · 01:30T. Andrle2.10510110J. Jnr1.671112133WSep 24 · 24:00J. Jnr1.3661111113A. Svoboda3.00114771LSep 23 · 23:00O. Kucirek1.7311116113J. Jnr2.00271171WSep 22 · 03:30J. Jnr1.6311111113J. Steffan2.13114791WSep 22 · 02:30J. Jnr1.441111113A. Svoboda2.635880WSep 22 · 01:30T. Andrle2.0081191362J. Jnr1.731111111113WSep 22 · 24:00J. Jnr1.8091211113P. Picek1.911110991WSep 21 · 23:00J. Steffan2.20911911112J. Jnr1.61117117133LSep 14 · 09:30J. Jnr1.90971161K. Darin1.8011115113WSep 14 · 08:30M. Stefek3.257490J. Jnr1.331111113
P. Picek10
LSep 24 · 02:58P. Picek1.734830T. Andrle2.001111113WSep 24 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.639940P. Picek1.441111113WSep 23 · 23:30P. Picek1.736111112113T. Andrle2.00111351072LSep 23 · 22:00P. Picek3.5061161382O. Kucirek1.281141111113WSep 22 · 02:58T. Andrle1.802650P. Picek1.911111113LSep 22 · 02:00P. Picek1.804380J. Steffan1.911111113WSep 22 · 01:00P. Picek1.531111113A. Svoboda2.387660LSep 22 · 24:00J. Jnr1.8091211113P. Picek1.911110991WSep 21 · 22:30T. Andrle1.6791171152P. Picek2.10119119113WSep 17 · 03:30P. Picek1.7311311133M. Smrcek2.007113111
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