TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Kyryl Darin 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5119111191181012
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 49–39 Kyryl Darin Kyryl Darin has won 39 of their 88 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Darin beat Dedek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2054.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-39 in 88
Dedek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1446 vs Darin 1596
Darin
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 60% vs Darin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Darin 80%
Darin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek +2 · Darin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 1.85 / Darin 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Darin)-0.1pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13226986
Dedek1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Darin1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek5wins
AwayDarin5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek100%3 of 3
AwayDarin71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek3Darin7n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S2Dedek5Darin5n = 10split evenly
S3Dedek7Darin3n = 10Dedek took 7 of 10
S4Dedek5Darin2n = 7Dedek took 5 of 7
S5Dedek1Darin2n = 3Darin took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekDarinDedek − DarinBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.334.6+1.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 967 vs 778 / 157651.4%49.4%497 / 967 vs 778 / 1576Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDedek 1.85/Darin 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 06:00J. Dedek42710121122K. Darin501112106113
LSep 24 · 00:30J. Dedek4488111162K. Darin48111196113
WSep 21 · 12:58J. Dedek4071111113K. Darin31112991
WSep 21 · 10:00J. Dedek331111113K. Darin188550
LSep 20 · 02:59J. Dedek27611191K. Darin3811115113
LSep 20 · 02:30J. Dedek226880K. Darin331111113
WSep 2 · 13:00J. Dedek3912313113K. Darin3810111161
WSep 2 · 10:00J. Dedek521111811113K. Darin3213311232
WAug 27 · 12:58J. Dedek331111113K. Darin188550
LAug 27 · 12:30J. Dedek313117101K. Darin4011611123
J. Dedek10
WOct 1 · 08:30J. Dedek1.401111113J. Steffan2.758670WOct 1 · 07:00J. Dedek1.33911911113J. Jnr3.2511411492LOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin1.831112106113J. Dedek1.83710121122LSep 29 · 17:30T. Kolenic1.5311811113J. Dedek2.38811661WSep 29 · 16:00J. Dedek1.36781111113J. Jnr3.0011112562LSep 29 · 15:30T. Kolenic1.6113129113J. Dedek2.2011101181WSep 29 · 14:00J. Dedek1.3341111113F. Briza3.25118591LSep 28 · 17:00L. Stacho1.67391411113J. Dedek2.10111112742LSep 28 · 16:30J. Dedek2.103660M. Kolar1.671111113LSep 28 · 15:00J. Dedek2.1011124982L. Stacho1.674101111113
K. Darin10
LOct 1 · 08:00K. Darin1.6198131162J. Jnr2.201111115113WOct 1 · 07:30J. Steffan2.38134611112K. Darin1.531111117133WOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin1.831112106113J. Dedek1.83710121122LSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:00V. Postelt1.141411991K. Darin5.0016511113WSep 30 · 00:30K. Darin2.20911119113J. Plachy1.6111941122WSep 29 · 23:00K. Darin3.0013911113R. Pavelka1.361111481WSep 29 · 22:00J. Prokupek1.6171260K. Darin2.201114113WSep 26 · 03:30K. Darin1.441116113O. Kucirek2.6331470WSep 26 · 02:30K. Darin1.501112113O. Kucirek2.5021070
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