TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Steffan vs Petr Picek 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
13159111315––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 76 set 3, 13-15 · our read held Jan Steffan at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 38–45 Petr Picek Jan Steffan has won 38 of their 83 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2154.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-45 in 83
Picek
Correct
gap of 7 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1446 vs Picek 1418
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 20% vs Picek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 40% vs Picek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -4 · Picek -2
Steffan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Steffan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.909 / Picek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Steffan)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13221137
Steffan1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 87 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Picek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 75 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan5wins
AwayPicek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan66.7%2 of 3
AwayPicek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan3Picek7n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S2Steffan4Picek6n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S3Steffan8Picek2n = 10Steffan took 8 of 10
S4Steffan5Picek4n = 9Steffan took 5 of 9
S5Steffan3Picek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanPicekS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.041.2−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime460 / 961 vs 271 / 54747.9%49.5%460 / 961 vs 271 / 547Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSteffan 1.91/Picek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 23:30J. Steffan43412124113P. Picek511110101192
WSep 22 · 02:00J. Steffan331111113P. Picek154380
LSep 17 · 00:00J. Steffan3844111182P. Picek45111139113
LSep 15 · 23:00J. Steffan33781171P. Picek4211119113
WSep 15 · 01:00J. Steffan4211911113P. Picek32611871
WSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan47911115113P. Picek4511951192
LAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan4661191192P. Picek47118116113
LAug 22 · 23:00J. Steffan31138461P. Picek44111111113
LAug 2 · 23:30J. Steffan4378111162P. Picek47111168113
WAug 1 · 22:00J. Steffan44381111113P. Picek4411118682
J. Steffan10
WOct 1 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.836470J. Steffan1.831111113LOct 1 · 09:00J. Jnr1.60111110113J. Steffan2.20851231LOct 1 · 08:30J. Dedek1.401111113J. Steffan2.758670LOct 1 · 07:30J. Steffan2.38134611112K. Darin1.531111117133LOct 1 · 06:30J. Jnr1.61711119113J. Steffan2.2011851172WSep 30 · 03:28M. Placek1.40511991J. Steffan2.7511911113LSep 30 · 02:30M. Placek1.441111113J. Steffan2.634760WSep 30 · 01:00O. Fejtek1.831011591J. Steffan1.8312911113WSep 29 · 23:30J. Steffan1.91412124113P. Picek1.801110101192WSep 29 · 22:00J. Steffan1.831171111113R. Bartunek1.8391113352
P. Picek10
LSep 30 · 02:58O. Fejtek1.53914411113P. Picek2.38111211582LSep 30 · 01:30P. Picek2.75951171M. Placek1.4011115113WSep 30 · 00:30R. Bartunek3.002790P. Picek1.361111113LSep 29 · 23:30J. Steffan1.91412124113P. Picek1.801110101192LSep 29 · 22:30P. Picek1.831281141O. Fejtek1.8314117113LSep 26 · 03:00P. Picek1.771191081T. Andrle1.9381112113WSep 26 · 02:00P. Picek1.36111188113R. Bartunek3.0076111162LSep 26 · 01:00P. Picek3.40811100O. Kucirek1.301113123LSep 26 · 00:00K. Darin1.671111113P. Picek2.107650WSep 25 · 22:30T. Andrle1.809117101P. Picek1.9111811123
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