TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Kyryl Darin 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119119811411119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Kyryl Darin @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 56.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 49–41 Kyryl Darin Kyryl Darin has won 41 of their 90 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:2856.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Darin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-41 in 90
Dedek
Correct
gap of 8 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1447 vs Darin 1612
Darin
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 20% vs Darin 80%
Darin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 50% vs Darin 70%
Darin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek -4 · Darin +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 2.00 / Darin 1.727
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Darin)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233688
Dedek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 83 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back22% 28 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 71
Darin1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 164 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it93% 83 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it78% 112 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek4wins
AwayDarin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDarin75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek2Darin8n = 10Darin took 8 of 10
S2Dedek3Darin7n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S3Dedek7Darin3n = 10Dedek took 7 of 10
S4Dedek6Darin1n = 7Dedek took 6 of 7
S5Dedek1Darin3n = 4Darin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekDarinDedek − DarinBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.537.2−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime502 / 977 vs 785 / 158351.4%49.6%502 / 977 vs 785 / 1583Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDedek 2.00/Darin 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Darin · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Kyryl Darin @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 20:30J. Dedek207670K. Darin331111113
LOct 1 · 09:30J. Dedek46591111102K. Darin51111198123
LOct 1 · 06:00J. Dedek42710121122K. Darin501112106113
LSep 24 · 00:30J. Dedek4488111162K. Darin48111196113
WSep 21 · 12:58J. Dedek4071111113K. Darin31112991
WSep 21 · 10:00J. Dedek331111113K. Darin188550
LSep 20 · 02:59J. Dedek27611191K. Darin3811115113
LSep 20 · 02:30J. Dedek226880K. Darin331111113
WSep 2 · 13:00J. Dedek3912313113K. Darin3810111161
WSep 2 · 10:00J. Dedek521111811113K. Darin3213311232
J. Dedek10
LOct 3 · 21:05J. Plachy1.471111113J. Dedek2.508860LOct 3 · 19:00J. Dedek2.257860J. Plachy1.571111113LOct 3 · 18:00L. Krok2.5051111113J. Dedek1.50116721LOct 2 · 21:00M. Sedlak1.50661111113J. Dedek2.5011117782LOct 2 · 20:30J. Dedek1.837670K. Darin1.831111113WOct 2 · 19:00J. Dedek2.63111178123M. Sedlak1.44641111102LOct 2 · 18:00T. Dousa2.00111315123J. Dedek1.7381117101WOct 1 · 17:30J. Dedek1.50411611113Y. Holovatiuk2.5011711792WOct 1 · 16:30M. Kolar1.57471171J. Dedek2.2511118113WOct 1 · 15:30J. Dedek1.44511116113Y. Holovatiuk2.6311251152
K. Darin10
WOct 3 · 19:30K. Darin2.0012116113L. Krok1.731061181WOct 3 · 18:30J. Plachy1.6181161152K. Darin2.20119116113WOct 3 · 17:00F. Briza1.876790K. Darin1.831111113LOct 3 · 16:00K. Darin2.7561230M. Kolar1.401114113WOct 3 · 15:30F. Briza2.10961161K. Darin1.6711119113LOct 3 · 14:00K. Darin1.736990D. Horak2.001111113WOct 2 · 21:30T. Dousa1.738511111K. Darin2.0011119133WOct 2 · 20:30J. Dedek1.837670K. Darin1.831111113WOct 2 · 19:30K. Darin2.101111511123T. Dousa1.67591113102LOct 2 · 18:30M. Sedlak1.53911911113K. Darin2.3811311892
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