TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Jaroslav Prokupek 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
51113151012––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Prokupek to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 66 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Jaroslav Prokupek at 57.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 39–38 Jaroslav Prokupek Jaroslav Prokupek has won 38 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:0557.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Prokupek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
39-38 in 77
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1455 vs Prokupek 1500
Prokupek
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 60% vs Prokupek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Prokupek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek +2 · Prokupek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Prokupek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 2.10 / Prokupek 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Prokupek)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258638
Dedek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 87 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back22% 30 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 75
Prokupek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 85 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it73% 64 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek4wins
AwayProkupek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderProkupek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek100%3 of 3
AwayProkupek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek3Prokupek7n = 10Prokupek took 7 of 10
S2Dedek5Prokupek5n = 10split evenly
S3Dedek3Prokupek7n = 10Prokupek took 7 of 10
S4Dedek5Prokupek3n = 8Dedek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekProkupekD − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.737.3−1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 987 vs 662 / 139051.2%47.6%505 / 987 vs 662 / 1390Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ProkupekDedek 2.10/Prokupek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Prokupek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 22:00J. Dedek145630J. Prokupek331111113
LSep 23 · 23:30J. Dedek31911651J. Prokupek4211911113
WSep 18 · 20:30J. Dedek4071111113J. Prokupek29115671
WSep 14 · 20:30J. Dedek4211811123J. Prokupek294114101
LSep 14 · 02:58J. Dedek33711961J. Prokupek3911611113
WSep 13 · 22:00J. Dedek521110911113J. Prokupek4761211992
LSep 8 · 18:00J. Dedek4891191182J. Prokupek48118117113
LSep 7 · 23:00J. Dedek2785140J. Prokupek381111163
WSep 6 · 20:30J. Dedek3611311113J. Prokupek31611681
LSep 4 · 03:00J. Dedek34711971J. Prokupek3711411113
J. Dedek10
LOct 8 · 11:00K. Darin1.80961111113J. Dedek1.9111117582WOct 7 · 21:03J. Dedek1.911191111113J. Plachy1.8061151342WOct 7 · 20:30J. Dedek2.50711116113J. Plachy1.5011761132LOct 7 · 19:00J. Dedek2.501111891M. Vedmoch1.5013911113LOct 7 · 18:00J. Prokupek1.831112113J. Dedek1.8341030WOct 6 · 02:30K. Darin1.801111117112J. Dedek1.91613511133LOct 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.731111113J. Dedek2.009660LOct 5 · 23:30J. Dedek1.57108111192P. Fojt2.25121199113LOct 5 · 22:00J. Dedek1.805630J. Prokupek1.911111113WOct 5 · 17:30J. Dedek2.631111910113T. Kolenic1.4449111292
J. Prokupek10
LOct 8 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.2010950R. Pavelka1.611211113WOct 7 · 21:30M. Vedmoch1.6512781192J. Prokupek2.101011115113LOct 7 · 20:00J. Prokupek2.257111071M. Vedmoch1.5711812113WOct 7 · 19:30J. Plachy1.737121181J. Prokupek2.0011149113WOct 7 · 18:00J. Prokupek1.831112113J. Dedek1.8341030LOct 7 · 13:10R. Pavelka1.33111179113J. Prokupek3.2556111142LOct 7 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111117123J. Prokupek2.204911101LOct 7 · 11:00J. Trefny2.00111611113J. Prokupek1.73618881LOct 7 · 10:30J. Prokupek1.73991161K. Darin2.0011115113WOct 5 · 22:00J. Dedek1.805630J. Prokupek1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Dedek
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