TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Jaroslav Prokupek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210711811115911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched: 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Michal Vedmoch @ 1.65 · Lost
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Michal Vedmoch at 59.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 29–35 Jaroslav Prokupek Michal Vedmoch has won 29 of their 64 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vedmoch beat Prokupek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:1659.6%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 1.0pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Vedmoch
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-35 in 64
Prokupek
Correct
gap of 6 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1591 vs Prokupek 1486
Vedmoch
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 100% vs Prokupek 40%
Vedmoch
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 80% vs Prokupek 40%
Vedmoch
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +5 · Prokupek -1
Vedmoch
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Vedmoch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.65 / Prokupek 2.10
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Vedmoch)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13261688
Vedmoch1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 196 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it80% 148 of 184
Prokupek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 88 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back13% 16 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch7wins
AwayProkupek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch83.3%5 of 6
AwayProkupek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch6Prokupek4n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S2Vedmoch5Prokupek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vedmoch8Prokupek2n = 10Vedmoch took 8 of 10
S4Vedmoch3Prokupek2n = 5Vedmoch took 3 of 5
S5Vedmoch2Prokupek1n = 3Vedmoch took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochProkupekV − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.035.1+0.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime728 / 1373 vs 663 / 139153%47.7%728 / 1373 vs 663 / 1391Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.65/Prokupek 2.10
Miss
What we said
59.6%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Michal Vedmoch @ 1.65 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 14:00M. Vedmoch45631111143J. Prokupek49111196122
WOct 1 · 11:00M. Vedmoch391112163J. Prokupek33910140
WSep 23 · 12:59M. Vedmoch44641111123J. Prokupek42111137102
WSep 23 · 12:00M. Vedmoch4011411143J. Prokupek364119121
WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch341111123J. Prokupek1844100
WSep 3 · 10:30M. Vedmoch341211113J. Prokupek2610880
WSep 2 · 08:00M. Vedmoch341112113J. Prokupek2151060
LAug 26 · 00:30M. Vedmoch246990J. Prokupek331111113
LAug 24 · 21:30M. Vedmoch4331411872J. Prokupek541112911113
LAug 24 · 19:00M. Vedmoch23111651J. Prokupek3961111113
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 7 · 20:00J. Prokupek2.257111071M. Vedmoch1.5711812113WOct 7 · 19:00J. Dedek2.501111891M. Vedmoch1.5013911113WOct 7 · 18:30M. Vedmoch1.731111113J. Plachy2.003880WOct 7 · 17:30M. Vedmoch1.70611911113J. Trefny2.0211911682WOct 7 · 16:00J. Trefny1.91114581M. Vedmoch1.8041111113LOct 7 · 15:00M. Sedlak3.00115912113M. Vedmoch1.36811111072WOct 7 · 14:30M. Vedmoch1.671111113J. Plachy2.107770WOct 5 · 20:58M. Vedmoch2.501111113K. Brozhik1.504940WOct 5 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.337111151M. Vedmoch3.2511813113LOct 5 · 19:30M. Vedmoch3.0081113992P. Zmuda1.361181111113
J. Prokupek10
LOct 7 · 20:00J. Prokupek2.257111071M. Vedmoch1.5711812113WOct 7 · 19:30J. Plachy1.737121181J. Prokupek2.0011149113WOct 7 · 18:00J. Prokupek1.831112113J. Dedek1.8341030LOct 7 · 13:10R. Pavelka1.33111179113J. Prokupek3.2556111142LOct 7 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111117123J. Prokupek2.204911101LOct 7 · 11:00J. Trefny2.00111611113J. Prokupek1.73618881LOct 7 · 10:30J. Prokupek1.73991161K. Darin2.0011115113WOct 6 · 03:30J. Prokupek1.83118119113J. Plachy1.8371171182LOct 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.73111110113J. Prokupek2.00541231WOct 6 · 00:30J. Prokupek1.6111118113P. Fojt2.20741191
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