TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Jiri Plachy 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113118118––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Michal Vedmoch at 54.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 55–54 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 54 of their 109 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Vedmoch beat Plachy 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1654.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-54 in 109
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1564 vs Plachy 1468
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 80% vs Plachy 0%
Vedmoch
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 50% vs Plachy 30%
Vedmoch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +2 · Plachy -5
Plachy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Vedmoch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.727 / Plachy 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Vedmoch)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254149
Vedmoch1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 196 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it80% 148 of 184
Plachy2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 143 of 351
Down 0–1, comes back21% 42 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch6wins
AwayPlachy4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVedmoch leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch71.4%5 of 7
AwayPlachy66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch7Plachy3n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S2Vedmoch5Plachy5n = 10split evenly
S3Vedmoch7Plachy3n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S4Vedmoch3Plachy5n = 8Plachy took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochPlachyV − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.4+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime727 / 1373 vs 736 / 159253%46.2%727 / 1373 vs 736 / 1592Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.73/Plachy 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 14:30M. Vedmoch331111113J. Plachy217770
LOct 4 · 01:00M. Vedmoch4511116982J. Plachy50891111113
WOct 1 · 13:30M. Vedmoch501011117113J. Plachy4212571172
WOct 1 · 10:30M. Vedmoch44121110113J. Plachy381091271
LOct 1 · 08:58M. Vedmoch406617111J. Plachy50111115133
WOct 1 · 06:30M. Vedmoch4111811113J. Plachy36711991
LSep 23 · 10:30M. Vedmoch33134881J. Plachy44111111113
LSep 23 · 07:30M. Vedmoch367101451J. Plachy46111212113
WSep 4 · 01:00M. Vedmoch3911611113J. Plachy29411681
WSep 3 · 13:29M. Vedmoch331111113J. Plachy187650
M. Vedmoch10
WOct 7 · 20:00J. Prokupek2.257111071M. Vedmoch1.5711812113WOct 7 · 19:00J. Dedek2.501111891M. Vedmoch1.5013911113WOct 7 · 17:30M. Vedmoch1.70611911113J. Trefny2.0211911682WOct 7 · 16:00J. Trefny1.91114581M. Vedmoch1.8041111113LOct 7 · 15:00M. Sedlak3.00115912113M. Vedmoch1.36811111072WOct 7 · 14:30M. Vedmoch1.671111113J. Plachy2.107770WOct 5 · 20:58M. Vedmoch2.501111113K. Brozhik1.504940WOct 5 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.337111151M. Vedmoch3.2511813113LOct 5 · 19:30M. Vedmoch3.0081113992P. Zmuda1.361181111113LOct 5 · 18:30T. Janata1.44951112113M. Vedmoch2.63111151082
J. Plachy10
LOct 7 · 19:30J. Plachy1.737121181J. Prokupek2.0011149113LOct 7 · 16:59M. Sedlak1.531091112123J. Plachy2.381211410102LOct 7 · 16:30M. Sedlak1.53851111113J. Plachy2.3811119392LOct 7 · 15:30J. Plachy2.38411100J. Trefny1.531113123LOct 7 · 14:30M. Vedmoch1.671111113J. Plachy2.107770LOct 6 · 03:30J. Prokupek1.83118119113J. Plachy1.8371171182WOct 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.73111110113J. Prokupek2.00541231WOct 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.731111113J. Dedek2.009660LOct 6 · 00:00K. Darin2.1011119113J. Plachy1.67881171WOct 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.73117911122J. Plachy2.00611115143
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