TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Yurii Holovatiuk vs Adam Svoboda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811118411115
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:57 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeYurii Holovatiuk to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Holovatiuk above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-5
Point 85 set 5, 10-5 · our read held Yurii Holovatiuk at 60.1%
85 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Yurii Holovatiuk 4–0 Adam Svoboda Adam Svoboda has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5760.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 9.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Holovatiuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Holovatiuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holovatiuk 1462 vs Svoboda 1557
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holovatiuk 60% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holovatiuk 60% vs Svoboda 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holovatiuk +2 · Svoboda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Holovatiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolovatiuk 1.444 / Svoboda 2.625
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Holovatiuk)-9.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264596
Holovatiuk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 87 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Svoboda2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHolovatiuk4wins
AwaySvoboda0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderHolovatiuk leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolovatiuk100%4 of 4
AwaySvobodan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holovatiuk4Svoboda0n = 4Holovatiuk took 4 of 4
S2Holovatiuk2Svoboda2n = 4split evenly
S3Holovatiuk3Svoboda1n = 4Holovatiuk took 3 of 4
S4Holovatiuk2Svoboda1n = 3Holovatiuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHolovatiukSvobodaH − SBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match39.831.0+8.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolovatiukSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 694 vs 217 / 40349.6%53.9%344 / 694 vs 217 / 403Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolovatiukHolovatiuk 1.44/Svoboda 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Holovatiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holovatiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 17 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk44115116113A. Svoboda4671181192
WAug 16 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk331111113A. Svoboda157350
WAug 15 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk4111118113A. Svoboda27451171
WAug 14 · 08:00Y. Holovatiuk4111711123A. Svoboda369116101
Y. Holovatiuk10
WOct 9 · 18:00K. Novak1.91611971Y. Holovatiuk1.8011911113WOct 8 · 21:00L. Krok1.53121111742Y. Holovatiuk2.38147811113LOct 8 · 20:00Y. Holovatiuk2.50111111792T. Dousa1.50139911113LOct 8 · 19:30L. Krok1.509121011123Y. Holovatiuk2.501110127102WOct 8 · 18:00Y. Holovatiuk2.001211114113J. Prokupek1.7314781182WOct 6 · 17:30T. Dousa1.5369110Y. Holovatiuk2.381111133LOct 6 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38131412592T. Dousa1.5315121011113WOct 6 · 15:30F. Briza2.637111181Y. Holovatiuk1.4411139113WOct 6 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk1.67101111113T. Kolenic2.10123491LOct 5 · 16:59T. Dousa1.504141111113Y. Holovatiuk2.5011168982
A. Svoboda10
WOct 9 · 20:00K. Novak1.578270A. Svoboda2.251111113WOct 9 · 18:30A. Svoboda3.00911411113J. Dedek1.3611611982LOct 8 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.48119611142M. Stefek2.45511115163WOct 8 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.44911811113M. Stefek2.6311911692WOct 8 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.635124101A. Svoboda1.44111011123WOct 8 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.171112113R. Hasmanda4.5091060LOct 8 · 09:30T. Andrle1.9014911133A. Svoboda1.8012114111LOct 8 · 08:00J. Jnr1.5341111113A. Svoboda2.38114581WOct 8 · 07:00M. Smrcek2.636860A. Svoboda1.441111113WOct 8 · 06:30A. Svoboda2.2571111113T. Andrle1.57116991
Upcoming Matches
Y. Holovatiuk
Oct 9 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.38J. Dedek1.53—Oct 10 · 14:30Y. Holovatiuk1.44F. Briza2.63—Oct 10 · 15:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57T. Kolenic2.25—Oct 10 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk1.61J. Didi2.20—Oct 10 · 22:30Y. Holovatiuk1.50L. Babicka2.50—Oct 11 · 00:00Y. Holovatiuk2.50A. Mikuska1.50—Oct 11 · 01:00Y. Holovatiuk2.20F. Jungman1.61—Oct 11 · 02:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57O. Kucirek2.25—
A. Svoboda
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