TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Adam Svoboda 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched: 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timeJiri Dedek to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Adam Svoboda @ 2.38 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Jiri Dedek at 55.6%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 2–2 Adam Svoboda Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Svoboda beat Dedek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 22:29Sent to Pro: Adam Svoboda @ 2.38 · Lost
55.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 9.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dedek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1420 vs Svoboda 1550
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 40% vs Svoboda 60%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 30% vs Svoboda 60%
Svoboda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek -2 · Svoboda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Dedek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 1.533 / Svoboda 2.375
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13264046
Dedek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 136 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Svoboda2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDedek2wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek66.7%2 of 3
AwaySvobodan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek3Svoboda1n = 4Dedek took 3 of 4
S2Dedek1Svoboda3n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
S3Dedek3Svoboda1n = 4Dedek took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricDedekSvobodaD − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match37.837.0+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 987 vs 219 / 40751%53.8%503 / 987 vs 219 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaDedek 1.53/Svoboda 2.38
Miss
What we said
55.6%
Dedek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Adam Svoboda @ 2.38 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 9 · 21:30J. Dedek2411850A. Svoboda351311113
LOct 9 · 18:30J. Dedek4511611982A. Svoboda46911411113
WSep 11 · 13:30J. Dedek331111113A. Svoboda217950
WSep 11 · 12:00J. Dedek49117117133A. Svoboda46411911112
J. Dedek10
LOct 9 · 23:00A. Mikuska2.2011116133J. Dedek1.617211111LOct 9 · 21:30J. Dedek1.8011850A. Svoboda1.901311113WOct 9 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.38114751J. Dedek1.5391111113WOct 9 · 19:30J. Dedek1.671111113K. Novak2.109960LOct 9 · 18:30A. Svoboda3.00911411113J. Dedek1.3611611982LOct 8 · 12:58J. Prokupek1.8011611113J. Dedek1.91611681LOct 8 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111911113J. Dedek2.20411571LOct 8 · 11:00K. Darin1.80961111113J. Dedek1.9111117582LOct 8 · 10:30J. Dedek2.10513100J. Prokupek1.671115123WOct 7 · 21:03J. Dedek1.911191111113J. Plachy1.8061151342
A. Svoboda10
LOct 9 · 22:30K. Darin1.5011117113A. Svoboda2.50691151WOct 9 · 21:30J. Dedek1.8011850A. Svoboda1.901311113WOct 9 · 20:00K. Novak1.578270A. Svoboda2.251111113LOct 9 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk1.44118114113A. Svoboda2.6361181152WOct 9 · 18:30A. Svoboda3.00911411113J. Dedek1.3611611982LOct 8 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.48119611142M. Stefek2.45511115163WOct 8 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.44911811113M. Stefek2.6311911692WOct 8 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.635124101A. Svoboda1.44111011123WOct 8 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.171112113R. Hasmanda4.5091060LOct 8 · 09:30T. Andrle1.9014911133A. Svoboda1.8012114111
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