TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Lukas Krok vs Lukas Babicka 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1715116112––––
Lukas Babicka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krok above · Lukas Babicka below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 62 set 3, 11-2 · our read held Lukas Krok at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krok 1–1 Lukas Babicka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krok 1490 vs Babicka 1505
Babicka
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krok 20% vs Babicka 60%
Babicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krok 40% vs Babicka 60%
Babicka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krok -2 · Babicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krok form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrok 1.727 / Babicka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krok)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268297
Krok1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 21 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it74% 17 of 23
Babicka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 19 days ago (Sep 21) · back after a break
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKrok1wins
AwayBabicka1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKrokBabickaK − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match35.537.5−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokBabickaBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 373 vs 68 / 13547.2%50.4%176 / 373 vs 68 / 135Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrokKrok 1.73/Babicka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 8 · 21:00L. Krok48611911113L. Babicka4211811752
LAug 8 · 18:00L. Krok239590L. Babicka331111113
L. Krok10
LOct 10 · 19:00J. Dedek1.6761111123L. Krok2.101157101LOct 8 · 21:00L. Krok1.53121111742Y. Holovatiuk2.38147811113LOct 8 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.611011311113L. Krok2.2012611992WOct 8 · 19:30L. Krok1.509121011123Y. Holovatiuk2.501110127102LOct 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.7311131112113L. Krok2.0081541472LOct 3 · 21:30K. Darin1.7311119123L. Krok2.007511101WOct 3 · 20:00L. Krok1.7311411113J. Plachy2.00711571LOct 3 · 19:30K. Darin2.0012116113L. Krok1.731061181WOct 3 · 18:00L. Krok2.5051111113J. Dedek1.50116721LSep 21 · 21:30J. Prokupek1.5711117113L. Krok2.25671151
L. Babicka10
WOct 10 · 19:30L. Babicka2.10111198113K. Darin1.6786111192WSep 21 · 17:30J. Plachy1.91511891L. Babicka1.8011311113LSep 21 · 16:30Y. Holovatiuk1.5381111113L. Babicka2.38115861WSep 21 · 15:30L. Babicka1.9111146113J. Plachy1.809121161WSep 21 · 14:30K. Darin1.73118861L. Babicka2.0081111113LSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462WSep 21 · 12:30J. Dedek1.73981121L. Babicka2.0011119113WSep 21 · 11:30L. Babicka2.001111113K. Darin1.736980LSep 21 · 10:30J. Plachy1.801111113L. Babicka1.918930WAug 8 · 02:58L. Babicka1.53138911133A. Svoboda2.381111115112
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