TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Jiri Dedek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13151210511311––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Jiri Dedek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 80 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 59.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 43–51 Jiri Dedek Kyryl Darin has won 43 of their 94 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:5459.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 1.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Darin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
43-51 in 94
Dedek
Correct
gap of 8 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1585 vs Dedek 1421
Darin
Wrong
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 60% vs Dedek 20%
Darin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 50% vs Dedek 30%
Darin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin -1 · Dedek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.666 / Dedek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Darin)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269169
Darin1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 165 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it93% 84 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it78% 112 of 144
Dedek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 85 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin6wins
AwayDedek4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin71.4%5 of 7
AwayDedek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin7Dedek3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S2Darin5Dedek5n = 10split evenly
S3Darin5Dedek5n = 10split evenly
S4Darin2Dedek5n = 7Dedek took 5 of 7
S5Darin4Dedek2n = 6Darin took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinDedekDarin − DedekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.5+3.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinDedekBasisWin rate · lifetime795 / 1591 vs 504 / 99050%50.9%795 / 1591 vs 504 / 990Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.67/Dedek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 01:30K. Darin331111113J. Dedek157440
WOct 8 · 11:00K. Darin48961111113J. Dedek4211117582
LOct 6 · 02:30K. Darin511111117112J. Dedek48613511133
LOct 3 · 20:30K. Darin4999111192J. Dedek45111184113
WOct 2 · 20:30K. Darin331111113J. Dedek207670
WOct 1 · 09:30K. Darin51111198123J. Dedek46591111102
WOct 1 · 06:00K. Darin501112106113J. Dedek42710121122
WSep 24 · 00:30K. Darin48111196113J. Dedek4488111162
LSep 21 · 12:58K. Darin31112991J. Dedek4071111113
LSep 21 · 10:00K. Darin188550J. Dedek331111113
K. Darin10
LOct 10 · 19:30L. Babicka2.10111198113K. Darin1.6786111192LOct 10 · 03:30T. Dousa1.601213113K. Darin2.20101170WOct 10 · 01:30K. Darin1.611111113J. Dedek2.207440WOct 10 · 00:30A. Mikuska1.57137120K. Darin2.251511143LOct 9 · 23:30T. Dousa1.731211113K. Darin2.0010890WOct 9 · 22:30K. Darin1.5011117113A. Svoboda2.50691151WOct 9 · 21:00F. Jungman1.6741060K. Darin2.101112113LOct 9 · 20:30K. Darin1.838970J. Plachy1.831111113LOct 9 · 19:00K. Darin2.007711101T. Dousa1.7311116123LOct 9 · 18:00F. Jungman1.671111611143K. Darin2.10136117122
J. Dedek10
WOct 10 · 19:00J. Dedek1.6761111123L. Krok2.101157101LOct 10 · 02:30J. Dedek1.7366110T. Dousa2.001111133LOct 10 · 01:30K. Darin1.611111113J. Dedek2.207440WOct 10 · 00:00J. Dedek1.531111113A. Svoboda2.388750LOct 9 · 23:00A. Mikuska2.2011116133J. Dedek1.617211111LOct 9 · 21:30J. Dedek1.8011850A. Svoboda1.901311113WOct 9 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.38114751J. Dedek1.5391111113WOct 9 · 19:30J. Dedek1.671111113K. Novak2.109960LOct 9 · 18:30A. Svoboda3.00911411113J. Dedek1.3611611982LOct 8 · 12:58J. Prokupek1.8011611113J. Dedek1.91611681
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