TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Kyryl Darin vs Tomas Dousa 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7117111161012––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Kyryl Darin @ 2.00 · Lost
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Tomas Dousa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 75 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Kyryl Darin at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 12–13 Tomas Dousa Kyryl Darin has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:5654.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1613 vs Dousa 1478
Darin
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 80% vs Dousa 40%
Darin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 70% vs Dousa 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin -1 · Dousa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Darin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousa form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 2.00 / Dousa 1.727
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Darin)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13263913
Darin2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 175 of 417
Down 0–1, comes back20% 45 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 141
Dousa1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 87 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it71% 56 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin5wins
AwayDousa5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin71.4%5 of 7
AwayDousa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin7Dousa3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S2Darin4Dousa6n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S3Darin2Dousa8n = 10Dousa took 8 of 10
S4Darin4Dousa5n = 9Dousa took 5 of 9
S5Darin4Dousa2n = 6Darin took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinDousaDarin − DousaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.645.0−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinDousaBasisWin rate · lifetime791 / 1583 vs 351 / 70650%49.7%791 / 1583 vs 351 / 706Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 2.00/Dousa 1.73
Miss
What we said
54%
Darin · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Kyryl Darin @ 2.00 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Dousa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 21:30K. Darin4411119133T. Dousa358511111
WOct 2 · 19:30K. Darin501111511123T. Dousa48591113102
LAug 27 · 15:30K. Darin4411118862T. Dousa47591111113
LAug 20 · 19:30K. Darin219480T. Dousa331111113
LAug 18 · 19:30K. Darin3811512101T. Dousa46131110123
LAug 17 · 20:00K. Darin51118811132T. Dousa52611119153
WAug 11 · 20:58K. Darin501110711113T. Dousa4661211892
LAug 11 · 20:00K. Darin4010131161T. Dousa4712159113
WAug 10 · 16:00K. Darin531111119113T. Dousa4889131172
WAug 5 · 19:00K. Darin45116611113T. Dousa4891111982
K. Darin10
LOct 9 · 18:00F. Jungman1.671111611143K. Darin2.10136117122WOct 8 · 13:30K. Darin1.911211113R. Pavelka1.8010830WOct 8 · 12:30K. Darin1.9141111113J. Prokupek1.80115361WOct 8 · 11:00K. Darin1.80961111113J. Dedek1.9111117582WOct 8 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.446690K. Darin2.631111113LOct 7 · 13:30K. Darin2.2581190J. Trefny1.571113113WOct 7 · 12:30J. Trefny1.40881171K. Darin2.7511115113WOct 7 · 11:30K. Darin2.7511611113R. Pavelka1.40711721WOct 7 · 10:30J. Prokupek1.73991161K. Darin2.0011115113LOct 6 · 02:58K. Darin2.387620P. Fojt1.531111113
T. Dousa10
WOct 9 · 20:00F. Jungman2.20931191T. Dousa1.6111117113LOct 9 · 18:30T. Dousa1.83811101152J. Plachy1.83119129113LOct 8 · 21:30T. Dousa1.7310870J. Prokupek2.001211113WOct 8 · 20:00Y. Holovatiuk2.50111111792T. Dousa1.50139911113LOct 8 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.91117311113T. Dousa1.8051111762WOct 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.7311131112113L. Krok2.0081541472LOct 6 · 17:30T. Dousa1.5369110Y. Holovatiuk2.381111133WOct 6 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38131412592T. Dousa1.5315121011113WOct 6 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.75119981T. Dousa1.4011111113WOct 6 · 14:30T. Dousa1.4481113113F. Briza2.631171161
Upcoming Matches
K. Darin
Oct 9 · 20:30K. Darin1.83J. Plachy1.83—Oct 9 · 22:30K. Darin1.50A. Svoboda2.50—Oct 9 · 23:30K. Darin2.00T. Dousa1.73—Oct 10 · 00:30K. Darin2.25A. Mikuska1.57—Oct 10 · 01:30K. Darin1.61J. Dedek2.20—Oct 10 · 18:00K. Darin1.80J. Dedek1.91—Oct 10 · 19:30K. Darin1.91L. Babicka1.80—Oct 10 · 20:00K. Darin1.80L. Krok1.91—
T. Dousa
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