TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Kyryl Darin 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:45 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 65.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 9–4 Kyryl Darin Kyryl Darin has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4565.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Pavelka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1558 vs Darin 1587
Darin
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Darin 60%
Darin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 40% vs Darin 60%
Darin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +2 · Darin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.444 / Darin 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Pavelka)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258490
Pavelka1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 98 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 68 of 87
Darin2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 172 of 414
Down 0–1, comes back19% 44 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka6wins
AwayDarin4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%5 of 5
AwayDarin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka5Darin5n = 10split evenly
S2Pavelka8Darin2n = 10Pavelka took 8 of 10
S3Pavelka3Darin7n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S4Pavelka5Darin5n = 10split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaDarinP − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.6+0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 886 vs 790 / 158650.6%49.8%448 / 886 vs 790 / 1586Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.44/Darin 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 11:30R. Pavelka27711721K. Darin3911611113
WSep 30 · 03:30R. Pavelka3611113113K. Darin32851181
LSep 29 · 23:00R. Pavelka341111481K. Darin4413911113
WAug 27 · 16:30R. Pavelka4015112123K. Darin4013611101
WJun 24 · 21:30R. Pavelka4011711113K. Darin33811771
LJun 24 · 20:30R. Pavelka32711861K. Darin3711411113
LJun 15 · 16:00R. Pavelka421511881K. Darin4517611113
WJun 7 · 09:00R. Pavelka4011711113K. Darin24511531
WJun 7 · 06:30R. Pavelka4291111113K. Darin30117661
WApr 18 · 08:00R. Pavelka42111127113K. Darin4276111172
R. Pavelka10
WOct 8 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.2010950R. Pavelka1.611211113WOct 7 · 13:10R. Pavelka1.33111179113J. Prokupek3.2556111142WOct 7 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111117123J. Prokupek2.204911101LOct 7 · 11:30K. Darin2.7511611113R. Pavelka1.40711721LOct 7 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.67711481J. Trefny2.1011811113LOct 5 · 03:02R. Pavelka1.915750R. Krejci1.801111113LOct 5 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.101691481K. Brozhik1.67141116113WOct 5 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.8371111113P. Zmuda1.83115241WOct 5 · 00:00R. Krejci1.57861151R. Pavelka2.2511117113LOct 4 · 22:30M. Chlebecek1.501111123R. Pavelka2.5067100
K. Darin10
WOct 8 · 11:00K. Darin1.80961111113J. Dedek1.9111117582LOct 7 · 13:30K. Darin2.2581190J. Trefny1.571113113WOct 7 · 12:30J. Trefny1.40881171K. Darin2.7511115113WOct 7 · 11:30K. Darin2.7511611113R. Pavelka1.40711721WOct 7 · 10:30J. Prokupek1.73991161K. Darin2.0011115113LOct 6 · 02:58K. Darin2.387620P. Fojt1.531111113LOct 6 · 02:30K. Darin1.801111117112J. Dedek1.91613511133WOct 6 · 01:30P. Fojt1.44137971K. Darin2.63111111113WOct 6 · 00:00K. Darin2.1011119113J. Plachy1.67881171LOct 5 · 23:00J. Prokupek1.7312115133K. Darin2.0010811111
Upcoming Matches
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