TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Karel Brozhik 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
16149111416811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:53 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeKarel Brozhik to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Karel Brozhik below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 99 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Karel Brozhik at 55.8%
99 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 1–0 Karel Brozhik Karel Brozhik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:5355.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Brozhik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1586 vs Brozhik 1591
Brozhik
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Brozhik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 50% vs Brozhik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +2 · Brozhik +3
Brozhik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Brozhik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.10 / Brozhik 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Brozhik)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238477
Pavelka2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 65 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back23% 21 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 44
Brozhik1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePavelka1wins
AwayBrozhik0wins
Pavelka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPavelkaBrozhikP − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.026.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaBrozhikBasisWin rate · lifetime451 / 890 vs 333 / 68350.7%48.8%451 / 890 vs 333 / 683Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozhikPavelka 2.10/Brozhik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Brozhik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brozhik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka331111113K. Brozhik268990
R. Pavelka10
LOct 5 · 03:02R. Pavelka1.915750R. Krejci1.801111113WOct 5 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.8371111113P. Zmuda1.83115241WOct 5 · 00:00R. Krejci1.57861151R. Pavelka2.2511117113LOct 4 · 22:30M. Chlebecek1.501111123R. Pavelka2.5067100LOct 3 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.4571111113R. Pavelka2.55117461WOct 3 · 02:00R. Pavelka1.5771112113M. Vedmoch2.251161061WOct 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka2.751111113K. Brozhik1.408990LOct 3 · 00:00M. Sobisek1.301091311113R. Pavelka3.40121111852WOct 2 · 22:30P. Zmuda1.8311871162R. Pavelka1.83611119113LOct 2 · 12:59J. Plachy2.25711511113R. Pavelka1.5711611972
K. Brozhik10
WOct 5 · 03:30K. Brozhik1.55111414113M. Chlebecek2.354161261WOct 5 · 00:30K. Brozhik1.531111113M. Chlebecek2.388990WOct 4 · 23:00K. Brozhik1.6711611113R. Krejci2.10411981WOct 4 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.676510K. Brozhik2.101111113LOct 3 · 02:30M. Sobisek1.8311711143K. Brozhik1.833116121LOct 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka2.751111113K. Brozhik1.408990LOct 2 · 23:30K. Brozhik1.91118281P. Zmuda1.8051111113WOct 2 · 22:00K. Brozhik1.36111188113M. Vedmoch3.0045111162LOct 1 · 20:58M. Sobisek1.73111187113K. Brozhik2.0067111162LOct 1 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.731111861K. Kapras2.0013811113
Upcoming Matches
R. Pavelka
Nothing scheduled
K. Brozhik
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