TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Radim Pavelka 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116811711119611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Petr Zmuda at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 2–6 Radim Pavelka Petr Zmuda has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1617 vs Pavelka 1556
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 40% vs Pavelka 20%
Zmuda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 50% vs Pavelka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda -2 · Pavelka -4
Pavelka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zmuda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.833 / Pavelka 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zmuda)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13234396
Zmuda1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Pavelka1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZmuda2wins
AwayPavelka6wins
4 of 8 to a deciderPavelka leads 6–2, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmuda66.7%2 of 3
AwayPavelka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda3Pavelka5n = 8Pavelka took 5 of 8
S2Zmuda5Pavelka3n = 8Zmuda took 5 of 8
S3Zmuda3Pavelka5n = 8Pavelka took 5 of 8
S4Zmuda0Pavelka7n = 7Pavelka took 7 of 7
S5Zmuda2Pavelka2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricZmudaPavelkaZ − PBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match39.543.8−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 265 vs 449 / 88552.5%50.7%139 / 265 vs 449 / 885Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaZmuda 1.83/Pavelka 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 23 · 07:00P. Zmuda501211511113R. Pavelka50108111382
LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda33118771R. Pavelka3851111113
LJul 10 · 09:30P. Zmuda567131313102R. Pavelka6011111115123
WJul 10 · 07:00P. Zmuda43111164113R. Pavelka4176111162
LJul 5 · 09:30P. Zmuda4781111892R. Pavelka46116711113
LJul 5 · 06:00P. Zmuda2798100R. Pavelka341111123
LJul 28 · 21:30P. Zmuda28611471R. Pavelka4011711113
LJul 28 · 19:30P. Zmuda32481191R. Pavelka4111118113
P. Zmuda10
LOct 2 · 09:30V. Cermak2.001114113P. Zmuda1.7361220LOct 2 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6761101122V. Cermak2.10112114113WOct 2 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75111151122P. Zmuda1.40136118113WOct 2 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.361111113J. Prokupek3.008740LOct 1 · 12:58P. Zmuda1.809750M. Vizek1.911111113WOct 1 · 12:00M. Volf1.67121121172P. Zmuda2.101061113113LOct 1 · 11:00D. Tuma2.631114113P. Zmuda1.4491260WOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981LOct 1 · 09:30J. Stolfa1.851111113P. Zmuda1.853270WOct 1 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.444111411113M. Vedmoch2.63117121382
R. Pavelka10
LOct 2 · 12:59J. Plachy2.25711511113R. Pavelka1.5711611972LOct 2 · 12:30R. Pavelka1.53911691J. Plachy2.3811911113LOct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka2.004970V. Cermak1.731111113LOct 2 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.5761111123R. Pavelka2.251195101WOct 1 · 13:11R. Pavelka1.831111113J. Prokupek1.838350WOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140LOct 1 · 11:30J. Plachy2.381181011113R. Pavelka1.5361112992LOct 1 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.6197111172J. Prokupek2.20111146113WSep 30 · 03:30K. Darin2.25851181R. Pavelka1.5811113113WSep 30 · 02:30R. Pavelka1.6711117113J. Prokupek2.10771171
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