TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Michal Vedmoch 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111161210116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:58 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 59.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 27–15 Michal Vedmoch Michal Vedmoch has won 15 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:5859.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-15 in 42
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 12 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1584 vs Vedmoch 1505
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Vedmoch 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 40% vs Vedmoch 60%
Vedmoch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Vedmoch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.571 / Vedmoch 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Pavelka)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227212
Pavelka1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 98 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 68 of 87
Vedmoch2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 109 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka8wins
AwayVedmoch2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%7 of 7
AwayVedmoch66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka7Vedmoch3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Pavelka6Vedmoch4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S3Pavelka7Vedmoch3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S4Pavelka3Vedmoch3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaVedmochP − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.131.3+6.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 889 vs 716 / 135550.8%52.8%452 / 889 vs 716 / 1355Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.57/Vedmoch 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 02:00R. Pavelka4171112113M. Vedmoch331161061
WOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka381111163M. Vedmoch3189140
WSep 27 · 18:00R. Pavelka491111133113M. Vedmoch4151151192
WSep 24 · 08:30R. Pavelka331111113M. Vedmoch237880
WSep 23 · 06:00R. Pavelka43111011113M. Vedmoch21312421
LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka351011951M. Vedmoch3712311113
LSep 7 · 14:00R. Pavelka189450M. Vedmoch331111113
WAug 30 · 20:00R. Pavelka44111111113M. Vedmoch34713771
WAug 30 · 03:30R. Pavelka331111113M. Vedmoch167720
WAug 30 · 02:00R. Pavelka47118116113M. Vedmoch4491151182
R. Pavelka10
LOct 3 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.4571111113R. Pavelka2.55117461WOct 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka2.751111113K. Brozhik1.408990LOct 3 · 00:00M. Sobisek1.301091311113R. Pavelka3.40121111852WOct 2 · 22:30P. Zmuda1.8311871162R. Pavelka1.83611119113LOct 2 · 12:59J. Plachy2.25711511113R. Pavelka1.5711611972LOct 2 · 12:30R. Pavelka1.53911691J. Plachy2.3811911113LOct 2 · 11:00R. Pavelka2.004970V. Cermak1.731111113LOct 2 · 10:00J. Stolfa1.5761111123R. Pavelka2.251195101WOct 1 · 13:11R. Pavelka1.831111113J. Prokupek1.838350WOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140
M. Vedmoch10
LOct 3 · 03:00M. Vedmoch2.109114111P. Zmuda1.6711611133WOct 3 · 00:30M. Vedmoch2.631111113P. Zmuda1.449640LOct 2 · 23:00M. Vedmoch3.40751161M. Sobisek1.3011118113LOct 2 · 22:00K. Brozhik1.36111188113M. Vedmoch3.0045111162WOct 2 · 17:30V. Postelt2.05911111232M. Vedmoch1.681113810113LOct 2 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.441011671V. Postelt2.6312511113WOct 2 · 15:30T. Dousa2.251011881M. Vedmoch1.5712411113WOct 2 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.67631111143J. Prokupek2.10111196122WOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113LOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140
Upcoming Matches
R. Pavelka
Nothing scheduled
M. Vedmoch
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.