TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vedmoch vs Petr Zmuda 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116114––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:28 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 52 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Petr Zmuda at 68.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 5–8 Petr Zmuda Michal Vedmoch has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2868.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zmuda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Zmuda
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1515 vs Zmuda 1597
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 40% vs Zmuda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 60% vs Zmuda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch -2 · Zmuda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Zmuda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 2.625 / Zmuda 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Zmuda)-0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13235025
Vedmoch2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 109 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back20% 25 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 75
Zmuda1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 68 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch4wins
AwayZmuda6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZmuda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch66.7%4 of 6
AwayZmuda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch6Zmuda4n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S2Vedmoch4Zmuda6n = 10Zmuda took 6 of 10
S3Vedmoch4Zmuda6n = 10Zmuda took 6 of 10
S4Vedmoch2Zmuda3n = 5Zmuda took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochZmudaV − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.334.7−0.4per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime716 / 1354 vs 140 / 26852.9%52.2%716 / 1354 vs 140 / 268Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaVedmoch 2.63/Zmuda 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 00:30M. Vedmoch331111113P. Zmuda199640
LOct 1 · 08:00M. Vedmoch51117121382P. Zmuda514111411113
WSep 23 · 09:00M. Vedmoch351113113P. Zmuda2161140
LSep 23 · 08:00M. Vedmoch24311371P. Zmuda3811511113
LSep 22 · 17:00M. Vedmoch188640P. Zmuda331111113
LSep 22 · 15:00M. Vedmoch2710890P. Zmuda341211113
LSep 21 · 22:00M. Vedmoch4111101191P. Zmuda4481213113
WJul 26 · 22:30M. Vedmoch341111123P. Zmuda2367100
LJul 21 · 01:00M. Vedmoch29881121P. Zmuda4111118113
WJul 4 · 01:30M. Vedmoch51119911113P. Zmuda4361111692
M. Vedmoch10
LOct 2 · 23:00M. Vedmoch3.40751161M. Sobisek1.3011118113LOct 2 · 22:00K. Brozhik1.36111188113M. Vedmoch3.0045111162WOct 2 · 17:30V. Postelt2.05911111232M. Vedmoch1.681113810113LOct 2 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.441011671V. Postelt2.6312511113WOct 2 · 15:30T. Dousa2.251011881M. Vedmoch1.5712411113WOct 2 · 14:00M. Vedmoch1.67631111143J. Prokupek2.10111196122WOct 1 · 13:30J. Plachy2.0012571172M. Vedmoch1.731011117113LOct 1 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.531111163M. Vedmoch2.3889140WOct 1 · 11:00J. Prokupek2.00910140M. Vedmoch1.731112163WOct 1 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.57121110113J. Plachy2.251091271
P. Zmuda10
WOct 2 · 23:30K. Brozhik1.91118281P. Zmuda1.8051111113LOct 2 · 22:30P. Zmuda1.8311871162R. Pavelka1.83611119113LOct 2 · 09:30V. Cermak2.001114113P. Zmuda1.7361220LOct 2 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6761101122V. Cermak2.10112114113WOct 2 · 07:30J. Plachy2.75111151122P. Zmuda1.40136118113WOct 2 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.361111113J. Prokupek3.008740LOct 1 · 12:58P. Zmuda1.809750M. Vizek1.911111113WOct 1 · 12:00M. Volf1.67121121172P. Zmuda2.101061113113LOct 1 · 11:00D. Tuma2.631114113P. Zmuda1.4491260WOct 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda2.0071111113M. Vizek1.73119981
Upcoming Matches
M. Vedmoch
Oct 3 · 02:00M. Vedmoch2.25R. Pavelka1.57—Oct 3 · 10:00M. Vedmoch2.20J. Stolfa1.61—Oct 3 · 11:00M. Vedmoch2.10T. Vinter1.67—Oct 3 · 12:30M. Vedmoch1.57J. Prokupek2.25—Oct 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.57J. Prokupek2.25—Oct 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.57P. Fojt2.25—Oct 4 · 01:00M. Vedmoch1.73J. Plachy2.00—Oct 4 · 02:30M. Vedmoch1.53J. Trefny2.38—
P. Zmuda
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.