TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Karel Brozhik vs Marek Chlebecek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11414161412116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:25 and never touched: 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeKarel Brozhik to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Brozhik above · Marek Chlebecek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 88 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Karel Brozhik at 60.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Karel Brozhik 3–0 Marek Chlebecek Marek Chlebecek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Brozhik beat Chlebecek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2560.3%Our read64.5%to break even at 1.55
short by 4.2pp64.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.55 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Brozhik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Brozhik
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozhik 1602 vs Chlebecek 1584
Brozhik
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozhik 80% vs Chlebecek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozhik 50% vs Chlebecek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozhik +4 · Chlebecek +1
Brozhik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Brozhik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlebecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozhik 1.55 / Chlebecek 2.35
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Brozhik)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13246520
Brozhik1.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Chlebecek2.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrozhik3wins
AwayChlebecek0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBrozhik leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozhik100%3 of 3
AwayChlebecekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozhik3Chlebecek0n = 3Brozhik took 3 of 3
S2Brozhik2Chlebecek1n = 3Brozhik took 2 of 3
S3Brozhik3Chlebecek0n = 3Brozhik took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrozhikChlebecekB − CBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match39.030.0+9.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozhikChlebecekBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 684 vs 121 / 25348.8%47.8%334 / 684 vs 121 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrozhikBrozhik 1.55/Chlebecek 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.3%
Brozhik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Brozhik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 5 · 00:30K. Brozhik331111113M. Chlebecek268990
WDec 13 · 14:00K. Brozhik51119119113M. Chlebecek4151181162
WDec 13 · 12:30K. Brozhik331111113M. Chlebecek236890
K. Brozhik10
WOct 5 · 02:00R. Pavelka2.101691481K. Brozhik1.67141116113WOct 5 · 00:30K. Brozhik1.531111113M. Chlebecek2.388990WOct 4 · 23:00K. Brozhik1.6711611113R. Krejci2.10411981WOct 4 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.676510K. Brozhik2.101111113LOct 3 · 02:30M. Sobisek1.8311711143K. Brozhik1.833116121LOct 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka2.751111113K. Brozhik1.408990LOct 2 · 23:30K. Brozhik1.91118281P. Zmuda1.8051111113WOct 2 · 22:00K. Brozhik1.36111188113M. Vedmoch3.0045111162LOct 1 · 20:58M. Sobisek1.73111187113K. Brozhik2.0067111162LOct 1 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.731111861K. Kapras2.0013811113
M. Chlebecek10
WOct 5 · 01:30M. Chlebecek2.2011146113R. Krejci1.613121191LOct 5 · 00:30K. Brozhik1.531111113M. Chlebecek2.388990WOct 4 · 23:30P. Zmuda2.25751191M. Chlebecek1.5711117113WOct 4 · 22:30M. Chlebecek1.501111123R. Pavelka2.5067100WOct 4 · 16:58M. Chlebecek1.6711117113M. Sobisek2.10531151LOct 4 · 16:00M. Chlebecek1.83138613102V. Cermak1.8311111111123WOct 4 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00117791M. Chlebecek1.7351111113LOct 4 · 14:00M. Chlebecek2.1012560J. Stolfa1.671411113LSep 28 · 03:30T. Janata1.651112113M. Chlebecek2.1091090WSep 28 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5051111123D. Tuma2.251183101
Upcoming Matches
K. Brozhik
M. Chlebecek
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.