TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marek Chlebecek vs Richard Krejci 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131412611119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:26 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Krejci to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Chlebecek above · Richard Krejci below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Richard Krejci at 58.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Marek Chlebecek 0–3 Richard Krejci Marek Chlebecek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:2658.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krejci
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Krejci
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlebecek 1571 vs Krejci 1619
Krejci
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlebecek 60% vs Krejci 20%
Chlebecek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlebecek 60% vs Krejci 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlebecek -1 · Krejci -4
Krejci
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Krejci) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejci form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlebecek 2.20 / Krejci 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Krejci)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238935
Chlebecek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Krejci1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 54 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChlebecek0wins
AwayKrejci3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKrejci leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlebecek1Krejci2n = 3Krejci took 2 of 3
S2Chlebecek0Krejci3n = 3Krejci took 3 of 3
S3Chlebecek1Krejci2n = 3Krejci took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricChlebecekKrejciC − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.039.0−9.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlebecekKrejciBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 252 vs 194 / 36547.6%53.2%120 / 252 vs 194 / 365Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrejciChlebecek 2.20/Krejci 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Krejci · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chlebecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 23:00M. Chlebecek218670R. Krejci331111113
LJul 20 · 03:00M. Chlebecek29661161R. Krejci3911116113
LJul 19 · 22:00M. Chlebecek4011861142R. Krejci45611116113
M. Chlebecek10
LOct 5 · 00:30K. Brozhik1.531111113M. Chlebecek2.388990WOct 4 · 23:30P. Zmuda2.25751191M. Chlebecek1.5711117113WOct 4 · 22:30M. Chlebecek1.501111123R. Pavelka2.5067100WOct 4 · 16:58M. Chlebecek1.6711117113M. Sobisek2.10531151LOct 4 · 16:00M. Chlebecek1.83138613102V. Cermak1.8311111111123WOct 4 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00117791M. Chlebecek1.7351111113LOct 4 · 14:00M. Chlebecek2.1012560J. Stolfa1.671411113LSep 28 · 03:30T. Janata1.651112113M. Chlebecek2.1091090WSep 28 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5051111123D. Tuma2.251183101WSep 28 · 01:30T. Janata1.61413611102M. Chlebecek2.201111115123
R. Krejci10
LOct 5 · 00:00R. Krejci1.57861151R. Pavelka2.2511117113LOct 4 · 23:00K. Brozhik1.6711611113R. Krejci2.10411981LOct 3 · 02:59M. Volf1.67721111113R. Krejci2.1011116772LOct 3 · 02:30M. Vizek1.531116113R. Krejci2.3881480WOct 3 · 01:00P. Pycha1.7312119762R. Krejci2.001071111113WOct 2 · 23:30R. Krejci2.109101111113S. Kadavy1.6711129172LOct 2 · 22:00R. Krejci2.10141011982M. Volf1.671212811113WSep 30 · 03:30R. Krejci1.8511911113V. Dvorak1.85811771WSep 30 · 02:00R. Krejci2.201112113K. Schopf1.6161060WSep 30 · 01:00R. Krejci2.201111910113V. Dvorak1.6196111222
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