TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sobisek vs Karel Brozhik 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1137111161412––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Karel Brozhik below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 75 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Martin Sobisek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 9–10 Karel Brozhik Martin Sobisek has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Brozhik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-10 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1657 vs Brozhik 1555
Sobisek
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 80% vs Brozhik 20%
Sobisek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 90% vs Brozhik 30%
Sobisek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek +4 · Brozhik -2
Sobisek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sobisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozhik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 1.833 / Brozhik 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobisek)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13228028
Sobisek1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Brozhik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek5wins
AwayBrozhik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek66.7%2 of 3
AwayBrozhik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek3Brozhik7n = 10Brozhik took 7 of 10
S2Sobisek6Brozhik4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S3Sobisek6Brozhik4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S4Sobisek4Brozhik3n = 7Sobisek took 4 of 7
S5Sobisek1Brozhik2n = 3Brozhik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekBrozhikS − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.1+0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekBrozhikBasisWin rate · lifetime571 / 1205 vs 332 / 68347.4%48.6%571 / 1205 vs 332 / 683Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekSobisek 1.83/Brozhik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 20:58M. Sobisek48111187113K. Brozhik4167111162
WOct 1 · 19:00M. Sobisek4181111113K. Brozhik32119571
LJun 27 · 16:30M. Sobisek4547141372K. Brozhik5611111211113
WMay 16 · 11:30M. Sobisek3961111113K. Brozhik28114941
WMay 5 · 16:59M. Sobisek331111113K. Brozhik184950
LMay 5 · 16:30M. Sobisek259970K. Brozhik331111113
LApr 19 · 16:30M. Sobisek53115116202K. Brozhik59911611223
LApr 14 · 23:30M. Sobisek32711681K. Brozhik3711411113
WApr 3 · 18:30M. Sobisek3851111113K. Brozhik33117961
LDec 1 · 02:00M. Sobisek2371060K. Brozhik341112113
M. Sobisek10
WOct 3 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.4571111113R. Pavelka2.55117461WOct 3 · 01:30P. Zmuda1.61612811102M. Sobisek2.201110119123WOct 3 · 00:00M. Sobisek1.301091311113R. Pavelka3.40121111852WOct 2 · 23:00M. Vedmoch3.40751161M. Sobisek1.3011118113WOct 1 · 20:58M. Sobisek1.73111187113K. Brozhik2.0067111162LOct 1 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.611211113M. Sobisek2.2010420WOct 1 · 19:00K. Brozhik1.57119571M. Sobisek2.2581111113WOct 1 · 18:30M. Sobisek1.83611119113K. Kapras1.8311651172WOct 1 · 17:30D. Tuma1.857740M. Sobisek1.851111113WOct 1 · 16:30M. Sobisek1.8312811113D. Tuma1.831011871
K. Brozhik10
LOct 3 · 01:00R. Pavelka2.751111113K. Brozhik1.408990LOct 2 · 23:30K. Brozhik1.91118281P. Zmuda1.8051111113WOct 2 · 22:00K. Brozhik1.36111188113M. Vedmoch3.0045111162LOct 1 · 20:58M. Sobisek1.73111187113K. Brozhik2.0067111162LOct 1 · 20:30K. Brozhik1.731111861K. Kapras2.0013811113LOct 1 · 19:00K. Brozhik1.57119571M. Sobisek2.2581111113LOct 1 · 18:00J. Stolfa2.10116119113K. Brozhik1.6781171172LSep 29 · 21:30K. Brozhik1.53512981R. Krejci2.38111011113WSep 29 · 20:30R. Krejci1.9110990K. Brozhik1.801211113WSep 29 · 19:30K. Brozhik1.361112812143J. Pozarsky3.008101114122
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