TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sobisek vs Karel Kapras 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116115911117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Karel Kapras below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Martin Sobisek at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 15–14 Karel Kapras Karel Kapras has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kapras beat Sobisek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1616 vs Kapras 1529
Sobisek
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 80% vs Kapras 60%
Sobisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 70% vs Kapras 40%
Sobisek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek +3 · Kapras +1
Sobisek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sobisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 1.833 / Kapras 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobisek)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13222574
Sobisek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kapras1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek4wins
AwayKapras6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKapras leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek75%3 of 4
AwayKapras83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek4Kapras6n = 10Kapras took 6 of 10
S2Sobisek5Kapras5n = 10split evenly
S3Sobisek3Kapras7n = 10Kapras took 7 of 10
S4Sobisek2Kapras4n = 6Kapras took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekKaprasS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.934.5−1.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekKaprasBasisWin rate · lifetime569 / 1203 vs 158 / 31847.3%49.7%569 / 1203 vs 158 / 318Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekSobisek 1.83/Kapras 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 14:00M. Sobisek31711581K. Kapras4011711113
WSep 10 · 21:30M. Sobisek45111310113K. Kapras357111251
WSep 10 · 20:30M. Sobisek43111110113K. Kapras26921231
WAug 26 · 18:30M. Sobisek341112113K. Kapras2571080
LAug 25 · 19:00M. Sobisek196580K. Kapras331111113
LAug 6 · 18:30M. Sobisek174490K. Kapras331111113
LMay 26 · 20:30M. Sobisek34117791K. Kapras3411111113
LMay 1 · 16:30M. Sobisek2274110K. Kapras351111133
LMar 16 · 20:30M. Sobisek361091161K. Kapras4312119113
WMar 12 · 21:00M. Sobisek48711118113K. Kapras4111281192
M. Sobisek10
WOct 1 · 19:00K. Brozhik1.57119571M. Sobisek2.2581111113WOct 1 · 17:30D. Tuma1.857740M. Sobisek1.851111113WOct 1 · 16:30M. Sobisek1.8312811113D. Tuma1.831011871WOct 1 · 15:00M. Sobisek1.911111113M. Vizek1.807860LOct 1 · 14:00K. Kapras2.0011711113M. Sobisek1.73711581WSep 29 · 13:30M. Sobisek1.57611511113V. Cermak2.2511811792WSep 29 · 12:00M. Sobisek1.731111113V. Cermak2.007510WSep 29 · 11:30J. Trefny2.101011851M. Sobisek1.6712911113WSep 29 · 10:00M. Sobisek2.63111195143J. Stolfa1.44671111122LSep 29 · 09:00V. Cermak2.20111011113M. Sobisek1.61612991
K. Kapras10
WOct 1 · 17:00M. Vizek1.8369111172K. Kapras1.83111176113LOct 1 · 16:00K. Kapras1.61611471M. Vizek2.2011411113LOct 1 · 15:30D. Tuma2.101111113K. Kapras1.676880WOct 1 · 14:00K. Kapras2.0011711113M. Sobisek1.73711581WSep 29 · 21:00M. Bittner2.00118661K. Kapras1.7331111113LSep 29 · 20:30D. Tuma1.8311118113K. Kapras1.83681171WSep 29 · 19:30K. Kapras1.75111111113P. Zmuda1.85913661LSep 29 · 18:30M. Bittner2.2513711113K. Kapras1.571111571LSep 10 · 21:30M. Sobisek1.80111310113K. Kapras1.907111251LSep 10 · 20:30K. Kapras1.80921231M. Sobisek1.91111110113
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