TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Dousa vs Jaroslav Prokupek 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Tomas Dousa at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousa 29–36 Jaroslav Prokupek Tomas Dousa has won 29 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Prokupek beat Dousa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2954.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dousa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-36 in 65
Prokupek
Correct
gap of 7 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousa 1504 vs Prokupek 1511
Prokupek
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousa 60% vs Prokupek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousa 70% vs Prokupek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousa +1 · Prokupek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dousa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousa 1.727 / Prokupek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dousa)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13266530
Dousa1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 87 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it71% 56 of 79
Prokupek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 90 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back14% 17 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousa6wins
AwayProkupek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDousa leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousa71.4%5 of 7
AwayProkupek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousa7Prokupek3n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S2Dousa7Prokupek3n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S3Dousa8Prokupek2n = 10Dousa took 8 of 10
S4Dousa1Prokupek6n = 7Prokupek took 6 of 7
S5Dousa2Prokupek3n = 5Prokupek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousaProkupekD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.537.4+3.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousaProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 711 vs 664 / 139449.9%47.6%355 / 711 vs 664 / 1394Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousaDousa 1.73/Prokupek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dousa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Prokupek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 19:00T. Dousa4051111762J. Prokupek43117311113
WOct 2 · 17:05T. Dousa49111197113J. Prokupek4798111182
WOct 2 · 16:30T. Dousa4011711113J. Prokupek32511971
LSep 21 · 19:00T. Dousa3711511372J. Prokupek50811911113
LSep 11 · 19:00T. Dousa4611116992J. Prokupek49971111113
WSep 8 · 21:28T. Dousa341111123J. Prokupek2284100
WSep 8 · 20:00T. Dousa331111113J. Prokupek214890
LAug 24 · 20:30T. Dousa44891981J. Prokupek50111117113
WMay 26 · 15:30T. Dousa331111113J. Prokupek132650
WMay 15 · 23:00T. Dousa49711128113J. Prokupek47117101182
T. Dousa10
WOct 8 · 20:00Y. Holovatiuk2.50111111792T. Dousa1.50139911113LOct 8 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.91117311113T. Dousa1.8051111762WOct 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.7311131112113L. Krok2.0081541472LOct 6 · 17:30T. Dousa1.5369110Y. Holovatiuk2.381111133WOct 6 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk2.38131412592T. Dousa1.5315121011113WOct 6 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.75119981T. Dousa1.4011111113WOct 6 · 14:30T. Dousa1.4481113113F. Briza2.631171161WOct 5 · 16:59T. Dousa1.504141111113Y. Holovatiuk2.5011168982WOct 5 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk2.6361261252T. Dousa1.4411101110113LOct 5 · 15:00J. Dedek1.831115113T. Dousa1.8381350
J. Prokupek10
WOct 8 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.611011311113L. Krok2.2012611992WOct 8 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.91117311113T. Dousa1.8051111762LOct 8 · 18:00Y. Holovatiuk2.001211114113J. Prokupek1.7314781182WOct 8 · 12:58J. Prokupek1.8011611113J. Dedek1.91611681LOct 8 · 12:30K. Darin1.9141111113J. Prokupek1.80115361LOct 8 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.2010950R. Pavelka1.611211113WOct 8 · 10:30J. Dedek2.10513100J. Prokupek1.671115123WOct 7 · 21:30M. Vedmoch1.6512781192J. Prokupek2.101011115113LOct 7 · 20:00J. Prokupek2.257111071M. Vedmoch1.5711812113WOct 7 · 19:30J. Plachy1.737121181J. Prokupek2.0011149113
Upcoming Matches
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