TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Tomas Hnizdil 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811117119––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched: 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 76.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 1–7 Tomas Hnizdil Tomas Rein has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1676.7%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 0.2pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Hnizdil
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Hnizdil
Wrong
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1424 vs Hnizdil 1646
Hnizdil
Wrong
both rated, 222 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 80% vs Hnizdil 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Hnizdil 70%
Hnizdil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -1 · Hnizdil +3
Hnizdil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Hnizdil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 3.40 / Hnizdil 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Hnizdil)-0.2pp
TT Cup · #13266727
Rein3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 104 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back20% 39 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 108
Hnizdil1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 50 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeRein1wins
AwayHnizdil7wins
2 of 8 to a deciderHnizdil leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHnizdil85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein1Hnizdil7n = 8Hnizdil took 7 of 8
S2Rein0Hnizdil8n = 8Hnizdil took 8 of 8
S3Rein4Hnizdil4n = 8split evenly
S4Rein2Hnizdil3n = 5Hnizdil took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricReinHnizdilR − HBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match31.039.1−8.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime377 / 848 vs 113 / 18844.5%60.1%377 / 848 vs 113 / 188Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilRein 3.40/Hnizdil 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein50981111113T. Hnizdil4311119572
LSep 3 · 14:09T. Rein213990T. Hnizdil331111113
LSep 3 · 11:25T. Rein4387111162T. Hnizdil44111192113
LJun 29 · 09:59T. Rein37981191T. Hnizdil4211119113
LJun 29 · 07:25T. Rein32491181T. Hnizdil4211119113
LJan 29 · 07:55T. Rein227870T. Hnizdil331111113
LJan 26 · 15:30T. Rein171790T. Hnizdil331111113
LJan 26 · 14:25T. Rein26125541T. Hnizdil43101111113
T. Rein10
LOct 9 · 12:20T. Rein2.259980T. Cerveny Jr1.571111113LOct 9 · 10:20T. Rein1.80116311112P. Vodal1.91511114133WOct 7 · 13:50T. Rein2.4511116113F. Dvorak1.48891121WOct 7 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.50511100T. Rein2.501113123WOct 7 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.304590T. Rein3.401111113WOct 7 · 10:50T. Rein1.5011911113D. Vojna2.50211951LOct 5 · 21:33T. Rein2.63112791J. Cousin1.4451111113WOct 5 · 20:20T. Rein2.381113712113J. Cousin1.53515111092LOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113LOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113
T. Hnizdil10
WOct 9 · 10:50T. Cerveny Jr3.257790T. Hnizdil1.331111113WSep 16 · 13:59F. Balcar2.00891391T. Hnizdil1.73111111113WSep 16 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.67111014113M. Filipek2.102121251LSep 16 · 11:20F. Balcar2.00481111113T. Hnizdil1.7311113972WSep 16 · 10:50B. Budik2.20127101152T. Hnizdil1.601011128113WSep 15 · 13:24T. Hnizdil1.3641112123J. Osmera3.0011810101LSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181LSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133WSep 15 · 10:20J. Osmera3.00511471T. Hnizdil1.3611811113WSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931
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