TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Tomas Rein 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
51111131012––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 62 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 65.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 36–31 Tomas Rein Tomas Rein has won 31 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1565.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-31 in 67
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
gap of 5 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerveny Jr 1482 vs Rein 1400
Cerveny Jr
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerveny Jr 20% vs Rein 60%
Rein
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerveny Jr 20% vs Rein 40%
Rein
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerveny Jr -2 · Rein +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Cerveny Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerveny Jr 1.50 / Rein 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Cerveny Jr)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13258093
Cerveny Jr1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 67 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Rein2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 101 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back20% 39 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerveny Jr8wins
AwayRein2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerveny Jr88.9%8 of 9
AwayReinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerveny Jr9Rein1n = 10Cerveny Jr took 9 of 10
S2Cerveny Jr5Rein5n = 10split evenly
S3Cerveny Jr7Rein3n = 10Cerveny Jr took 7 of 10
S4Cerveny Jr4Rein2n = 6Cerveny Jr took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCerveny JrReinC − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.133.1+4.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCerveny JrReinBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 613 vs 376 / 84855.1%44.3%338 / 613 vs 376 / 848Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Cerveny JrCerveny Jr 1.50/Rein 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Cerveny Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rein won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr4091011101T. Rein4411129123
WSep 30 · 14:05T. Cerveny Jr341111123T. Rein2789100
WSep 30 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr3511211113T. Rein30811651
WSep 25 · 13:25T. Cerveny Jr4312119113T. Rein341051181
WSep 25 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr331111113T. Rein218760
WSep 15 · 14:20T. Cerveny Jr49117911113T. Rein4361111692
LSep 6 · 18:55T. Cerveny Jr28116471T. Rein4291111113
WAug 16 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr4312512143T. Rein43101110121
WJul 20 · 14:50T. Cerveny Jr331111113T. Rein236980
WApr 24 · 13:59T. Cerveny Jr331111113T. Rein248790
T. Cerveny Jr10
WOct 7 · 13:20D. Vojna1.73711913102T. Cerveny Jr2.001151111123LOct 7 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.739590D. Vojna2.001111113LOct 7 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.6361151592F. Dvorak1.441181113113WOct 2 · 21:28T. Cerveny Jr1.36911811113S. Matousch3.0011911572LOct 2 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil2.104111411113T. Cerveny Jr1.6711716572LOct 2 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr1.3698111192P. Cibik3.00111165113WOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113LOct 1 · 17:20D. Zelezny1.6111811113T. Cerveny Jr2.20911661LOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113LOct 1 · 15:20T. Cerveny Jr2.2011104101D. Zelezny1.6181211123
T. Rein10
WOct 7 · 13:50T. Rein2.4511116113F. Dvorak1.48891121WOct 7 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.304590T. Rein3.401111113WOct 7 · 10:50T. Rein1.5011911113D. Vojna2.50211951LOct 5 · 21:33T. Rein2.63112791J. Cousin1.4451111113WOct 5 · 20:20T. Rein2.381113712113J. Cousin1.53515111092LOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113LOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113LOct 4 · 13:20T. Rein2.008880J. Cousin1.731111113LOct 4 · 12:20T. Rein2.5091161172J. Dohnal1.50116118113WOct 4 · 11:20T. Rein2.63161111113J. Cousin1.441471341
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