TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Tomas Cerveny Jr 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:12 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Cerveny Jr to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Tomas Cerveny Jr at 60.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 32–36 Tomas Cerveny Jr Tomas Rein has won 32 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1260.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cerveny Jr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-36 in 68
Cerveny Jr
Correct
gap of 4 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1443 vs Cerveny Jr 1475
Cerveny Jr
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 80% vs Cerveny Jr 40%
Rein
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 60% vs Cerveny Jr 40%
Rein
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +1 · Cerveny Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Cerveny Jr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerveny Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.25 / Cerveny Jr 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Cerveny Jr)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266747
Rein2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog34% won 104 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back20% 39 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 108
Cerveny Jr1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 67 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein3wins
AwayCerveny Jr7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerveny Jr leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCerveny Jr87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Cerveny Jr8n = 10Cerveny Jr took 8 of 10
S2Rein6Cerveny Jr4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S3Rein4Cerveny Jr6n = 10Cerveny Jr took 6 of 10
S4Rein2Cerveny Jr4n = 6Cerveny Jr took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinCerveny JrR − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.336.4−2.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinCerveny JrBasisWin rate · lifetime378 / 849 vs 336 / 61044.5%55.1%378 / 849 vs 336 / 610Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Cerveny JrRein 2.25/Cerveny Jr 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Cerveny Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cerveny Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 12:20T. Rein361113123T. Cerveny Jr26511100
WOct 1 · 14:20T. Rein4411129123T. Cerveny Jr4091011101
LSep 30 · 14:05T. Rein2789100T. Cerveny Jr341111123
LSep 30 · 11:20T. Rein30811651T. Cerveny Jr3511211113
LSep 25 · 13:25T. Rein341051181T. Cerveny Jr4312119113
LSep 25 · 10:20T. Rein218760T. Cerveny Jr331111113
LSep 15 · 14:20T. Rein4361111692T. Cerveny Jr49117911113
WSep 6 · 18:55T. Rein4291111113T. Cerveny Jr28116471
LAug 16 · 19:50T. Rein43101110121T. Cerveny Jr4312512143
LJul 20 · 14:50T. Rein236980T. Cerveny Jr331111113
T. Rein10
WOct 9 · 11:20T. Rein3.4011811113T. Hnizdil1.30711791LOct 9 · 10:20T. Rein1.80116311112P. Vodal1.91511114133WOct 7 · 13:50T. Rein2.4511116113F. Dvorak1.48891121WOct 7 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.50511100T. Rein2.501113123WOct 7 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.304590T. Rein3.401111113WOct 7 · 10:50T. Rein1.5011911113D. Vojna2.50211951LOct 5 · 21:33T. Rein2.63112791J. Cousin1.4451111113WOct 5 · 20:20T. Rein2.381113712113J. Cousin1.53515111092LOct 5 · 19:20T. Rein2.754620D. Zelezny1.401111113LOct 5 · 18:20T. Rein2.506490J. Dohnal1.501111113
T. Cerveny Jr10
WOct 9 · 11:50P. Vodal1.571146121T. Cerveny Jr2.2551111143LOct 9 · 10:50T. Cerveny Jr3.257790T. Hnizdil1.331111113WOct 7 · 13:20D. Vojna1.73711913102T. Cerveny Jr2.001151111123LOct 7 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.50511100T. Rein2.501113123LOct 7 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.739590D. Vojna2.001111113LOct 7 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.6361151592F. Dvorak1.441181113113WOct 2 · 21:28T. Cerveny Jr1.36911811113S. Matousch3.0011911572LOct 2 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil2.104111411113T. Cerveny Jr1.6711716572LOct 2 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr1.3698111192P. Cibik3.00111165113WOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.