TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Cerveny Jr vs Tomas Hnizdil 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:42 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Cerveny Jr above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 73.7%
56 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Cerveny Jr 0–2 Tomas Hnizdil Tomas Cerveny Jr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4273.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cerveny Jr 1472 vs Hnizdil 1638
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerveny Jr 40% vs Hnizdil 80%
Hnizdil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerveny Jr 30% vs Hnizdil 60%
Hnizdil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerveny Jr +1 · Hnizdil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Hnizdil) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerveny Jr 3.25 / Hnizdil 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Hnizdil)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266605
Cerveny Jr3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 41 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Hnizdil1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 23 days ago (Sep 16) · back after a break
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 50 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeCerveny Jr0wins
AwayHnizdil2wins
Hnizdil leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away2
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricCerveny JrHnizdilC − HBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match34.043.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCerveny JrHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime339 / 615 vs 149 / 24755.1%60.3%339 / 615 vs 149 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilCerveny Jr 3.25/Hnizdil 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 9 · 11:50T. Cerveny Jr335711101T. Hnizdil4311119123
LJan 26 · 13:25T. Cerveny Jr35681291T. Hnizdil43111110113
T. Cerveny Jr10
WOct 7 · 13:20D. Vojna1.73711913102T. Cerveny Jr2.001151111123LOct 7 · 12:20T. Cerveny Jr1.50511100T. Rein2.501113123LOct 7 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.739590D. Vojna2.001111113LOct 7 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.6361151592F. Dvorak1.441181113113WOct 2 · 21:28T. Cerveny Jr1.36911811113S. Matousch3.0011911572LOct 2 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil2.104111411113T. Cerveny Jr1.6711716572LOct 2 · 19:50T. Cerveny Jr1.3698111192P. Cibik3.00111165113WOct 2 · 18:20S. Matousch2.757780T. Cerveny Jr1.401111113LOct 1 · 17:20D. Zelezny1.6111811113T. Cerveny Jr2.20911661LOct 1 · 16:20T. Cerveny Jr2.25871171V. Koutnik1.5711117113
T. Hnizdil10
LOct 9 · 11:20T. Rein3.4011811113T. Hnizdil1.30711791WSep 16 · 13:59F. Balcar2.00891391T. Hnizdil1.73111111113WSep 16 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.67111014113M. Filipek2.102121251LSep 16 · 11:20F. Balcar2.00481111113T. Hnizdil1.7311113972WSep 16 · 10:50B. Budik2.20127101152T. Hnizdil1.601011128113WSep 15 · 13:24T. Hnizdil1.3641112123J. Osmera3.0011810101LSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181LSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133WSep 15 · 10:20J. Osmera3.00511471T. Hnizdil1.3611811113WSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931
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